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November 09, 2012

Kaus: Republicans Now Rushing To Amnesty Camp

Here's the problem: Hispanics are sort of in favor of amnesty.

But that's not why they vote Democratic. They vote Democratic because... they're Democrats.

So we're making a play for a very Democratic voting bloc by promising to make more Democrats.

An article I can't find at the moment (found it-- it's from a blog no one reads) noted that Hispanics say in polls they are broadly in favor of big government with more spending and more programs. I think they are more in favor of that than amnesty.

Not sure what amnesty gets us. One of the basic problems here is that pro-amnesty people brag that George W. Bush, who pushed amnesty, got 40% of the Hispanic vote.

40%. So he only lost it by 20%.

So every million Hispanics that vote, the GOP loses 200,000 votes. And that's Best Case Scenario. I don't see what amnesty does except increase the number of Hispanic voters who will vote against us.

Via Hot Air, this article by Heather Mac Donald rubbishes the "natural Republican constituency" hooey:

A March 2011 poll by Moore Information found that Republican economic policies were a stronger turn-off for Hispanic voters in California than Republican positions on illegal immigration. Twenty-nine percent of Hispanic voters were suspicious of the Republican party on class-warfare grounds — “it favors only the rich”; “Republicans are selfish and out for themselves”; “Republicans don’t represent the average person”– compared with 7 percent who objected to Republican immigration stances.

...

And a strong reason for that support for big government is that so many Hispanics use government programs. U.S.-born Hispanic households in California use welfare programs at twice the rate of native-born non-Hispanic households. And that is because nearly one-quarter of all Hispanics are poor in California, compared to a little over one-tenth of non-Hispanics. Nearly seven in ten poor children in the state are Hispanic, and one in three Hispanic children is poor, compared to less than one in six non-Hispanic children....

The idea of the “social issues” Hispanic voter is also a mirage. A majority of Hispanics now support gay marriage, a Pew Research Center poll from last month found. The Hispanic out-of-wedlock birth rate is 53 percent, about twice that of whites.

The demographic changes set into motion by official and de facto immigration policy favoring low-skilled over high-skilled immigrants mean that a Republican party that purports to stand for small government and free markets faces an uncertain future.

And Now Cubans, Too: Cubans voted 49% for Obama in Florida. The one segment of the Hispanic vote that used to vote Republican is now moving strongly to join the Obama's Racial Coalition.

Ha Ha Ha Ha: Drew just emailed me to say the "more in favor of big government" statistic I wrote about came from a blog no one ever reads.



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posted by Ace at 12:29 PM

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