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October 31, 2012
Overnight Open Thread (10-31-2012) - Hallows Eve EditionHappy Halloween all. Drunk and on a sugar high is no way to go through life - but it is fun for a few nights a year though.
Obama Optimism: Why It's Unfounded Part I Here Bob Krumm delves deep into the various poll numbers and points out why those sure of an Obama win (Nate Silver in particular) are misguided. The optimism that Obama's supporters project is unfounded in hard data and historical precedent. Against the numbers, his fans point to GOTV, state polls that buck the national norm, and magical statisticians who assure them that all is well. The only thing missing is the inevitable last minute appeal to the ghost of Harry S. Truman. And in Part II he explains why Obama supporters are still so confident: Yesterday's post, along with all of the above from today, helps to explain why I think that Democratic optimism in an Obama re-election is unfounded. The lack of circumspection that oft follows victory, the easy escape from other views, and the progressive's obedience to expertise make Barack Obama's supporters more optimistic than they should be. Even while Barack Obama is still close enough to win, it should be clear by now that he is in an undesirable position for an incumbent. And why is Intrade so wrong? Because the people placing bets there are themselves deluded: For that, we have to look at Thursday's ABC/Washington Post poll*. Even as this poll indicated that Mitt Romney held on to a three-point lead and sat at the magic number of 50%, it also found that among Obama's supporters, more than 90% of those polled expected Obama to win. Among Romney's supporters barely 70% thought that their man would prevail. It is an incongruous result when a majority expects the winning candidate to be the one with a minority of support. However, Intrade, like polling, is simply a gauge of human emotions. And those emotions are influenced by expert opinion. Far too many Democrats have faith in their experts' opinions and enough Republicans fear that those experts are right. And where there's delusion, there's money to be made. Why I Still Have a Hate-on for Jimmy Carter 3 Decades Later Reason #78: His naiveté and meddling during Operation Eagle Claw in 1980: Another presidential directive concerned the use of nonlethal riot-control agents. Given that the shah's occasionally violent riot control during the revolution was now Exhibit A in Iran's human-rights case against the former regime and America, Carter wanted to avoid killing Iranians, so he had insisted that if a hostile crowd formed during the raid, Delta should attempt to control it without shooting people. But at least Carter did authorize the rescue mission and authorize air support. Which is more than we can say about Obama. So an AP poll appeared last week that found 51% of Americans are prejudiced against black people. Well Sweasel had doubts about their uh, methodology and actually tracked down the study here. If you agree with any of the following statements or guessed too low, well you just might be a racist: "Irish, Italians, Jews, and other minorities overcame prejudice and worked their way up. Blacks should do the same without special favors." "It's really a matter of some people just not trying hard enough; if Blacks would only try harder, they could be just as well off as whites." "How much discrimination against Blacks do you feel there is in the United States today, limiting their chances to get ahead?" And if you disagree, you're just a racist in denial, racist. The 5 Creepiest Stories in the History of War Most of these I had at least heard of although the George H. Bush-cannibalism connection was new one to me. Music Videos of Your Nightmares! Okay most of these are more disturbing than scary. Modern Human Vs. Neanderthal: Who Would Win in a Fight? Short answer: Probably the modern human - if they follow a rope-a-dope strategy. And if they get to choose the weapons, go with the modern stone age tools. William Shatner: The Lesson He Never Forgot As told to Star Parade Magazine in 1968. Teh Tweet! Yahoo group. That is all. Obligatory black kitteh content: Tonight's post brought to you by every The Walking Dead episode broken down: Notice: Posted by permission of AceCorp LLC. Please e-mail overnight open thread tips to maetenloch at gmail. Otherwise send tips to Ace. | Recent Comments
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The Morning Report — 9/11/24
Daily Tech News 11 September 2024 Tuesday Overnight Open Thread (9/10/24) Commie vs. Capitalist Post Debate ont Final Debate Thread Debate Thread Two Debate Thread Ballers Cafe Even the Marxist New Republic Is Now Blasting Kamala Harris for Refusing to Say What She Even Believes In Quick Hits Chinese Spy Adulterer/Fornicator Eric Swalwell Is Having Yet Another Hysterical Fit Meltdown Search
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The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny More Margaret Cho Abuse Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed" Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means Wonkette's Stand-Up Act Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report! Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet The House of Love: Paul Krugman A Michael Moore Mystery (TM) The Dowd-O-Matic! Liberal Consistency and Other Myths Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate "Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long) The Donkey ("The Raven" parody) |