« Mid-Morning Art Thread | Main | Tucker Carlson: No American Has Been Killed By Muslims... Since 9/11; Anti-Muslim "Hate" Is an Op by the Jews »

Wednesday Morning Rant

Scorecard

With another year in the books, let's see how I did at prognostication at the beginning of the year. I've never claimed clairvoyance and as we'll see, there's a reason for that.

Happy New Year, Horde!

Prediction:

Economy is a mixed bag
I think we'll see a recession, possibly declared as having already begun but with good odds before the end of the year. It may not be severe, but I think we're nipping at the heels of one. The AI and real estate bubbles are helping keep things inflated, but there are a lot of headwinds in the monetary situation and out-of-control spending continuing to pile on. I think we're probably at the end (or close to it) on rate cuts and that is likely to reverse this year. Inflation is going to remain more or less untamed. Employment is probably going to suffer, too - and expect more and more "revisions" like we've been seeing that wipe out reported job gains. On the plus side, the coming regulatory reforms and - if it happens - DOGE are going to lay a lot of groundwork for recovery. China's continuing decline and the return of trade-as-policy-tool will likely pay dividends, too. There is a lot of reason for cautious optimism in the intermediate term, though I think 2025 is not going to be a banner year. If the bubbles in AI and real estate pop this year, it could be really rotten.

Gotta give myself a miss on this one. Employment - despite the headline numbers - is soft, but it isn't negative. Real estate is starting to soften more or less on schedule and the AI bubble has gotten even more dangerous, but nothing has broken badly and I can't claim any points.

Prediction:

The Russia/Ukraine situation is resolved, one way or another
American financing of the Ukrainians is unpopular and fewer people than ever care, except for not liking how much it's costing to maintain a stalemate. The great shoveling money into the furnace that Congress and Biden just undertook is likely its last hurrah. I expect Trump and his people to wade in and negotiate a settlement of some kind, in some manner. Russia will likely keep Crimea and the Russian-speaking areas it has already conquered and there will probably be some kind of DMZ or buffer zone. There may be some kind of reparations, disguised as something else, as a face-saving exercise (like seized Russian assets remaining seized forever). I don't think Zelensky will be deposed in the aftermath, nor do I think that Ukraine will be joining NATO or the EU. They won't be formally denied entry, but they won't be admitted.

Nope. Miss. Trump is making more noise recently about it and I think something will happen on this front soon, but it didn't happen in 2025.

Prediction:

The Middle East gets worse
The recent coup in Syria, the continued malingering in the Palestinian territories, an increasingly desperate Iran once the taps are turned off (which I think will happen under Trump, as it did before), an increasingly questionable Turkey and all the run-of-the-mill intrigues are going to conspire to keep the region hot for a while. I won't be surprised to see another war break out in the region, and I think peace breaking out is pretty unlikely.

This one is debatable. I am going to take the point, but you may disagree. There was an entire additional war in the region this year, the saber-rattling hasn't exactly toned down, various psychotic or suicidal countries decided to go ahead and recognize the Palestinian Territories, Israel/Qatar relations are degrading, there is civil unrest (again) in Iran, the Houthis remain a problem, etc. It isn't a pile of ash in the Middle East, but I think I can call this one a hit.

Prediction:

Energy improves
Despite the sticks in the eye Biden is driving into us on his way out the door, Trump is pro-energy and has sworn to keep naysayers - like RFK Jr - away from energy policy. I have some faith that this will happen and we'll be back to producing energy, starting this year. It takes a while and major industries don't turn on and off with the flip of a switch, but I have hope for a remaking of American energy through aggressive use of the EO pen, bullying Congress into doing their jobs, and whipping the administrative bureaus into line. Oil is going to be back, and I have some hope for nuclear at least getting started in the next few years.

Big hit. Oil is back and so is nuclear, much of it on the back of regulatory reform and major changes at Energy and Environmental Protection.

Prediction:

Unmaskable administrative infighting
The "Resistance" types are not going away, and are not going to be quitting on day 1. They're dug in like ticks and will do exactly what they did last time. I expect major, ugly, public fighting over the bureaus and control of them. I expect we're going to see attempted layoffs/mass firings, tons of court battles, stays, injunctions and overturnings from all corners. Congress is going to remain loudly silent over most of it, quietly blocking appointments as it is able. The bureaus are going to be fighting for their lives, and they know it. I expect some progress in Energy, Education, Interior, HHS, HUD and maybe some of the smaller outfits like USDA. I expect little to no progress in Justice, State, Treasury, EPA or any of those agencies comprising the IC.

I am going to give myself a point for this, but there is room for argument. The administrative agencies didn't exactly go as I expected (I expected nothing at EPA, and we got something). Justice has done what Justice always done, the courts have gone hog-wild, Congress has been largely unhelpful. We have had major gains in most of the places I expected, absent Education. I'm taking the point.

Prediction:

Continued progress in the culture war
We're going to chalk up some victories in 2025. I expect Hollywood to continue its general implosion as the cruft built up over the past seven years or so works its way through the studios. I expect DEI to be downplayed. DEI and its ilk will continue, of course, but much less publicly because it is losing support. I expect a few court battles over DEI-type policies to get started or finish during the year, and it will lose its de facto legal protections. More public universities are going to take a cue from Iowa and start winding down the more egregious programs. Woke is not going to die, but it's going to come out weaker in December than it is today.

Hit. The formal destruction of DEI has not been fully realized, but the entire scheme is on the back foot and while many universities and major corporations are making changes in name only, there is much progress being made. This has been a bright spot of the past year.

Prediction:

Major reductions and retrenchment in the press
The body blows the American press has been taking in the last quarter of 2024 will continue. They basically bet the business this year, and the bet failed. The Party loyalists who were keeping them afloat are disaffected, the opposition is exultant and the vast middle is increasingly indifferent if not outright contemptuous of the press. 2025 is going to be a bad year for establishment "journalism" and I expect significant layoffs and restructuring and would not be surprised by failure or near-failure resulting in consolidation. The press will not improve, it will just get smaller.

Hit. Major shakeups and divestitures at MSNBC, WaPo, CBS and more. The Press ain't dead (and it never will be), but they're having to regroup and consolidate and journalists have been getting axed.

So how did I do? 2/7 were clean misses and 3/7 were clean hits. 2/7 are arguable, but I think I got them.

So like 2025 itself, my crystal ball was a mixed bag!

I think 2025 was overall positive, but not stupendous. How do you think 2025 went? What do you all see for the coming year?