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« Obama Thought He'd Won The Debate; Was Surprised By Aides Telling Him He Hadn't; Aides Were "Stunned" By Obama's Misplaced Confidence | Main | Stacey Dash To Appear on Piers Morgan Tonight » October 09, 2012
NYT's Super-Amazing Poll Analyst Nate Silver: After Several Days Of Polling Which Put Romney Either At A Tie Or Ahead, "The Model" Now Says Romney Has Improved His Chances of Winning... All the Way Up to 25%I thought you said that in a race in which polls show Romney tied or ahead, he still only had a 25% to win -- Obama still at 75% -- based on your Secret Forecasting Model, but you couldn't have said that. You could not have possibly said the last three days of polling had moved Romney up from 21.6% to 25.2%. Because that would be insane. But it sure looks like that's what you said. Mitt Romney gained further ground in the FiveThirtyEight forecast on Monday, with his chances of winning the Electoral College increasing to 25.2 percent from 21.6 percent on Sunday. ??? Incidentally, he discounted Romney's two point lead in the Gallup poll, stating he didn't find it "newsy." Then he's got some problems with this so-called Pew poll: There are two smarter questions to ask about the Pew poll. First, is it really likely that Mr. Romney leads the race by 4 points right now? The consensus of the evidence, particularly the national tracking polls, would suggest otherwise. Instead, the forecast model’s conclusion is that the whole of the data is still consistent with a very narrow lead for Mr. Obama, albeit one that is considerably diminished since Denver. He's now upped that to a 3.7% bounce, I think. Anyway, John Nolte read this piece and also thought it was ever-so-slightly lunatic. And it doesn’t matter that today Nate Silver jumped the shark with his ridiculous 25.2% prediction of a Romney victory. Because Silver doesn’t exist in order to give anyone intelligent analysis. He's there to make Obama boosterism look intelligent and thoughtful and fact-based, no matter how ridiculous and counter-intuitive and fantastic the end result. It's like the Global Warming "models" -- they discount actual data which does not agree with their model. The Pew poll didn't fit the model, so it's plainly incorrect. After I saw this lunacy from Silver on Twitter last night, I began parodying him as 5ive3irty8ight, and Twitchy was kind enough to compile my jokes into a readable article. Here are a few of them: Discounting certain polls as incompatible with my model, and adding in the Finnageler's Constant, I have Obama with 143% chance to win Ohio. Incidentally, the Real Clear Politics Poll of Polls finally puts Romney barely ahead. There's still an ancient CNN poll, pre-debate, pulling Obama up a bit. | Recent Comments
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Wednesday Overnight Open Thread (9/27/23)
Couchbutt Cafe Quick Hits Supermarkets Are Closing in Chicago Due to Mass Looting, So the Woke Mayor Proposes... the State Opening Its Own Supermarkets So That Thieves Still Have Stores to Loot From Report: Hollywood Is Rebooting The Office Into The Office Cinematic Universe (TOCU) Because Everything Is Stupid Now UK Study: Puberty Blockers Given to Teens -- Get This -- Worsened Their Mental Illnesses Rather Than Abating Them Whoa: Anthony Fauci Was "Smuggled" Into CIA Headquarters, With No Record Of His Coming or Going, In Order to Help Shape the CIA's Stories on Covid-19's Origins Hunter's Chinese "Business" Partners Wired $250,000 to... Joe Biden's Home Address Grifting Obamas: Michelle Obama Charged $750,000 For a Single One-Hour Speech Wednesday Morning Rant Search
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