Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Support


Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!





Recent Entries
TIPP Daily Tracker: Romney 47% Obama 45% | Main | NYT's Super-Amazing Poll Analyst Nate Silver: After Several Days Of Polling Which Put Romney Either At A Tie Or Ahead, "The Model" Now Says Romney Has Improved His Chances of Winning... All the Way Up to 25%
October 09, 2012

Obama Thought He'd Won The Debate;
Was Surprised By Aides Telling Him He Hadn't;
Aides Were "Stunned" By Obama's Misplaced Confidence

This isn't a re-post. It's a recontextualization.

First, some context. From @jeffemmanuel, an old quote from Obama:

I think that Im a better speechwriter than my speechwriters. I know more about policies on any particular issue than my policy directors. And Ill tell you right now that Im gonna think Im a better political director than my political director.

Next, from @rdbrewer4, his favorite psychological disorder, the Dunning-Kruger effect:

The DunningKruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes.[1]

Actual competence may weaken self-confidence, as competent individuals may falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. As Kruger and Dunning conclude, "the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others"

Or, in simpler terms: The competent understand their weaknesses and can also recognize the superiority of others (in areas where they are superior). Competent people actually rate themselves as less competent than they actually are.

On the other hand, incompetents tend to rate their competency much, much higher than reality. Because they're so incompetent they don't even know what competence, let alone expertise, looks like. And they can't even spot it when it's right in front of their faces, demonstrated by someone else.

And as I've noted a few times, Obama once said this to Newsweek:

"You know, I actually believe my own bullshit."

Those three completely unrelated points out of the way, Obama thought he beat Romney, via @slublog:

When President Barack Obama stepped off the stage in Denver last week the 60 million Americans watching his debate against Mitt Romney already knew it had been a disaster for him.

But what nobody knew, until now, was that Obama believed he had actually won.

In an extraordinary insight into the events leading up to the 90 minute showdown which changed the face of the election, a Democrat close to the Obama campaign today reveals that the President also did not take his debate preparation seriously, ignored the advice of senior aides and ignored one-liners that had been prepared to wound Romney.

In retrospect, the one-liners wouldn't have worked -- they would have seemed desperate and trivial-- but the important stuff is his blowing off his homework, and then believing he'd actually won.

The Democrat said that Obama's inner circle was dismayed at the 'disaster' and that he believed the central problem was that the President was so disdainful of Romney that he didn't believe he needed to engage with him.

'President Obama made it clear he wanted to be doing anything else - anything - but debate prep,' the Democrat said. 'He kept breaking off whenever he got the opportunity and never really focused on the event.

The Democrat, who is aligned with the Obama campaign and has been an unofficial adviser on occasions, said that David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist, was stunned that the President left the stage feeling that he had won the debate.

Extraordinary. As Monty Python said of one of the Twits of the Year, "He has no idea when he's losing. He also has no idea when he's winning. He has no type of sensory awareness whatsoever." Or words to that effect.

Speaking of cognitive impairments, via @iowahawkblog: Obama now says he can only win if his supporters become obsessed.

Which I think is right.

I very much intend to win this election, Obama told donors in San Francisco Monday night. But were only going to do it if everybody is almost obsessive for the next 29 days.

Meanwhile, Romney projected confidence, not psychosis:

Romney stood in a driving rain in Newport News, Va., his wet hair sticking to the side of his face, to join the kinds of die-hard supporters he needs for victory. People wonder why it is Im so confident were going to win, he told them. Im confident because I see you here on a day like this. This is unbelievable.

Oops: John E. covered this a few posts down. I missed it, as it's Thunderdome.

Still, I think this adds something.

Look, I spent 20 minutes on this bitch. I cleared a couple of tabs I had open for a couple of hours. I'm not just putting it into draft.

No way, Meatball. No way.






Recent Comments
Lizzy: "No, Palin should not run. Make her the attack dog ..."

Harry Reid: "EBOLA PATIENT HAD CONTACT WITH SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN ..."

blaster: "off sock ..."

Tonic Dog: "229 Posted by: fixerupper at October 01, 2014 02: ..."

zombie: "[i]I think Perry would still be a good choice, and ..."

GOP polling unit: "[i]Hillary is going to wipe the floor with any Rep ..."

Truck Monkey, as Voiced by Brian Dennehy: "At least Caribou Barbie would go down swinging.... ..."

torquewrench: ""You want Ted Cruz. You'll take Rick Perry. ..."

your friendly Danube River guide: "227 Why do we always do this? Why do we begin sp ..."

ace: ">>>Why do we always do this? Why do we begin specu ..."

Romney 2016: "OK Apologies This Time. Brownies? ..."

Ben Roethlisberger: "[i]Why do we begin speculating the presidential el ..."

Recent Entries
Search


MuNuvians
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat
Archives
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64