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August 21, 2012

#MATH (AOSHQDD U.S. Senate Status)

AKA: Chill the f*** out.

Missouri was a gimme, now its likely gone.
Maine is probably gone too, Slu says hold on, I call that a loss.
I see us holding Nevada and Indiana comfortably, esp after R ads hit in Indiana to tie the Democrat to Obamacare. Scott Brown has enjoyed a lead over Fauxahontas, so with this holding we are down 1 seat to 46.

Add Nebraska. That is a given, and gets you to 47.

Add Wisconsin. Baldwin has failed to make any ground, Thompson has near-perfect Republican unity and enjoys an advantage with Independents, that gets you to 48.

Add Montana and North Dakota, where internal polling shows Ds with a slight lead but public polling a different story, and where Republicans will have a monetary advantage for the cycle.

That's 50.

Romney-Ryan means 51- because VP Ryan tie-breaks the Senate.

Problem solved, without Missouri. Or Florida, Ohio, New Mexico or Virginia for that matter. Wins in any of those states gets you to 51 outright. Consider those "call of history/RINO" insurance states.

In terms of odds, I put our chances at capturing 51 seats outright at about 50/50. Getting to 50 seats? 75%. So while Missouri is a slept-on-boner-of-a-pain, all is not lost.

In terms of how likely each seat goes?
100% Nebraska, 99% Wisconsin, 90% Montana, 75% North Dakota, 60% Virginia, 50% Florida, 40% New Mexico/Ohio, 35% Hawaii/Missouri, 25% Michigan, <10% Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Connecticut.

There are more paths to a Senate majority than there are for Romney to hit 270 electoral votes, and with recent polling in the midwest, southwest and south, that's a lot of paths.

To contribute to the competitive races:
MONTANA- Rehberg
OHIO- Mandel
and lets not forget Scott Brown of Massachusetts, facing his own fight.

Slu had also suggested we don't abandon Summers in MAINE, so send him a few bucks too.

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posted by CAC at 08:31 PM

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