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June 13, 2012

The Three Rules on Presidential Elections

RULE #1
EVERY TIME THE WHITE HOUSE HAS FLIPPED, THE WINNING PARTY SNAGS A STATE IT FAILED TO GRAB THE LAST TIME THEY FLIPPED IT. Those states may have been new to the union, or the demographics simply changed, which is the case since the 1960's. But the winning party in a flip always, without fail, gains states.

Republicans' first flip from the Democrats: 1860
Democrats' first flip from the Republicans: 1884

White House Flips since 1884:
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1888 back to R: NE,CO,KS
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1892 back to D: CA,WI,IL
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1896 back to R: ND,KY,WV,MD,DE,NJ,CT
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1912 back to D: OR,NV,AZ,NM,OK,CO,ID,MT,WY,ND,IA,OH,ME,MA,RI,NH
1920 back to R: MO,TN,OK,KS,NE,SD,MT,ID,WY,UT,CO,NV,AZ,NM,WA
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1932 back to D: WA,UT,MN,CA,SD
1952 back to R: FL,TX,VA
1960 back to D: PA,DE,CT,HI
1968 back to R: NC,SC,AK
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1976 back to D: WI,OH,KY,TN,FL
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1980 back to R: WA,MI,TX,PA,NY,CT,MA,ME
INCUMBENT DEFEATED* 1992 back to D: MT,WA,OR,NV,CA,CO,NM,IA,IL,MI,NJ,CT,VT,NH,ME
2000 back to R: WV,GA
2008 back to D: IN,NC,FL,VA,NE2

Note: this rule holds before the 1860s, but parties and party status changed from 1796 thru 1856, so we are focusing on the last 150 years with the modern parties.

RULE #2
IF AN INCUMBENT IS DEFEATED, THE VICTORIOUS PARTY GAINS MORE THAN ONE STATE IN THE FLIP RULE.
From the above, the minimum number of states gained has been two, the maximum is, well, not very pretty for the loser. Again, if the national desire to flip is strong enough to boot an incumbent, that rage spreads farther than a few electoral votes.


RULE #3
IF AN ELECTED PRESIDENT WINS RE-ELECTION, THEY GAIN STATES WHEN RE-ELECTED. They may lose a few they won at their first go, but they always pick up some. (Ex: Bush in 2004 lost New Hampshire but gained New Mexico and Iowa)

YEAR: STATES WON IN RE-ELECT NOT WON IN INITIAL ELECTION
1864: WV,MO,KS,NV
1872: LA,NJ,DE,NY,OR,FL
1900: WA,UT,WY,SD,NE,KS
1916: UT,WA,CA
1936: PA,DE,CT
1956: LA,KY,WV
1972: WA,HI,TX,MN,MI,WV,MD,NY,PA,CT,RI,ME
1984: HI,GA,MD,WV,RI
1996: FL,AZ
2004: IA,NM

Now, which of these rules bodes well for President Obama?


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posted by CAC at 09:35 PM

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