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June 12, 2012

A Brief Look at the "Blue Wall" and the Cracks Therein

So, I've already stated on here that the best indicator of a real flip is if the out-of-power party flips at least one state they failed to at their last successful flip. Going deeper and further back (into the 1800s), the rule stands, because states change. Parties change. If there is a strong enough desire by the voters to flip the party of the White House is is made evident in states once thought safe or at least safer. It has been true every single time the parties have flipped, and will remain so.

So, the last time the Republicans won back the White House, Bush carried the states of Georgia and West Virginia- two states that went to Carter in 1980- and lost the following states:
Washington, Oregon, California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine. These states are considered part of the "Blue Wall" and are (for the most part) considered to be President Obama's base states.

How did these states break for Obama, and how are they polling now?

CrackedBlueWall

Washington
2008: Obama 57-40
2012: Obama 51-40 (Strategies360)
Oregon
2008: Obama 57-40
2012: Obama 47-43 (SUSA)
California
2008: Obama 61-37
2012: Obama 48-32 (FIELD)
Hawaii
2008: Obama 72-27
2012: Obama 57-32 (PPP)
New Mexico
2008: Obama 57-42
2012: Obama 54-40 (PPP)
Minnesota
2008: Obama 54-44
2012: Obama 54-39 (PPP)
Iowa
2008: Obama 54-44
2012: Romney 47-46 (Rasmussen) (flip)
lllinois
2008: Obama 62-37
2012: Obama 56-35 (MarketShares)
Michigan
2008: Obama 57-41
2012: Romney 46-45 (EPICMRA) (flip)
Wisconsin
2008: Obama 56-42
2012: Obama 48-43 (WAA)
Pennsylvania
2008: Obama 54-44
2012: Obama 46-40 (Quinnipiac)
Maryland
2008: Obama 62-36
2012: Obama 58-35 (PPP)
Delaware
2008: Obama 62-36
2012: unavailable as nobody has bothered to poll. I wouldn't either.
New Jersey
2008: Obama 57-42
2012: Obama 49-39 (Quinnipiac)
New York
2008: Obama 63-36
2012: Obama 56-31 (Quinnipiac)
Connecticut
2008: Obama 61-38
2012: Obama 50-38 (Quinnipiac)
Rhode Island
2008: Obama 63-35
2012: Obama 54-37 (PPP)
Massachusetts
2008: Obama 62-36
2012: Obama 59-34 (Suffolk)
Maine
2008: Obama 58-40
2012: Obama 50-42 (CriticalInsights)
Vermont
2008: Obama 67-30
2012: Obama 58-33 (Castleton)

So far we see two states that have shown favor to Romney. In the remaining states everyone expects Obama to win, his leads have shrunk, in some cases rather dramatically.

In the past month we have seen no nonpartisan polling firms release data showing Obama up in a single McCain state. This is on top of Romney's improving numbers in Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Indiana, and North Carolina. The only state he has done markedly worse in is New Hampshire. To say that the electoral map is beginning to fall out of Obama's favor is an understatement.

We saw a similar phenomenon in the "Bush41" states in early/mid 2008 polling. States that went to elder Bush despite Clinton winning in 1992- North Dakota, South Dakota, South Carolina- suddenly polled a helluva lot closer. Indiana, Florida, Virginia and North Carolina flipped entirely.

While everybody keeps watching the same tired list of purple states, the ones that general consensus assumes are behind the President but are now flirting with the opposition (or polling in the opposition's favor entirely) are the ones we should be focused on. They are the leading indicator, and if they go, the purple states needed to win are already ours.


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posted by CAC at 05:27 PM

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