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Maggie Gallagher: Hey, I Was There, Mitt Romney Was A Rock On Gay Marriage | Main | Life Imitates South Park. Again.
December 02, 2011

The Single Best Barometer for 2012

Bellwether, schmellwether.
There is one consistant pattern that has lasted since both parties existed and nominated candidates for President.


In the event of a party flip of the White House, the winner carries at least one state their party's previous White House flipper failed to snag.

Bush carried states against Al Gore that Reagan didn't against Carter (West Virgina and Georgia).
Obama carried states against McCain that Clinton failed to flip in 1992 (Virginia and Indiana).
Jimmy Carter carried states against Ford that JFK lost to Nixon despite Kennedy's best efforts with the zombie vote (Ohio, arguably the most critical in the '76 election).

If the Republican wins at least one state Bush did not carry in 2000, we are not guaranteed to win the election, but if we fail to capture a Gore state we are guaranteed a loss. This is the one consistant election barometer and I am stunned nobody thought of and published this before. So memorize the states below, and watch them going into the new year. We lead comfortably in a few, buy pudding. If we trail in every single one, do what you morons have done for the last few years, only double it and with more teeth-gnashing.

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posted by CAC at 07:14 PM

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