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June 06, 2012

Michael Barrone: I Did A Crazy Thing. I Adjusted Those Wisconsin Exits Against Actual Turnout. And You Know What? Obama v. Romney Turns Out To Be a 48-48 Tie.

This guy is B A N A N A S, bananas.

Whatever you do, you don't re-weight a flawed exit poll to accord with actual election results.

That's too obvious. That's just what they'd be expecting you to do.

You should read his piece, but I'll digest it. There are still uncounted votes, so there remains some question about the final margin of Walker's victory.

Barrone looks at two scenarios, one with a final tally with a larger Walker margin of victory (suggesting a bigger Democratic skew) and one with a smaller margin of victory (suggesting a smaller Democratic skew).

With the smaller Democratic skew, the actual exit polls, weighted properly to reflect the fact that too few Republicans and right-leaning independents were queried, show a 48-48 tie between Obama and Romney.

With the larger Democratic skew, the exit polls, properly weighted to eliminate the skew, show Romney ahead by two points, 49-47.



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posted by Ace at 04:44 PM

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