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May 31, 2012

Final? Barrett(D) Internal for Wisconsin Recall:

He still loses, 48-50. No change from the last internal "release".
His supporters try to push the other "findings" which show strong support for Barrett amongst those familiar with John Doe...but Barrett has been hammering and yammering on John Doe since...before the last poll. No change.

Public nonpartisan polling has continued to show Walker leading. The only polling impacting the perception of the race, convienently, are Barrett's and the Democratic push polls from DGA and Lake. Nate Silver, hardly a Walker enthusiast, clears the air on the left's bizarre attack on every public poll yet boast and defense of their clearly biased internals:

Dem poll shows WI-recall tied. Nonpartisan poll has Walker up 7. Relevant fact: partisan polls have a 6-point bias on average.
Yes, there's some residual chance that Barrett pulls off the upset. But don't see any reason to distrust the nonpartisan polling in WI.

Nonpartisan poll after poll after poll has given Walker at least a 5 point lead on the LV screen (his highest is +12 with We Ask America, which also had the largest sample size and smallest margin of error). Sure, Barrett's numbers could be right.
Walker could win it in a squeaker instead of the current mid-single digits. Or of course the unthinkable, but if Republicans turn their GOTV efforts up to 11 that shouldn't happen.

Final projection will be Sunday/Monday, depending on any more public polls released by the end of the weekend. Coverage for the recall results will begin one hour before the polls close in Wisconsin on Tuesday and will carry through until all results are in, sometime early Wednesday.

UPDATED TOTALS ON ABSENTEE BALLOTS (Mailed AND in-person early voting totals): 160,800.
Early in-person voting ends tomorrow, 5pm.
The alleged 30,000 a day for 13 days has failed to materialize, for what it's worth.

Total in 2010: 230,000
Total in 2008 (Democrats are aiming for high turnout): 633,000

RECAPS ON CITY BY CITY ABSENTEES
MADISON (thru Thu) 15,000 returned/in person
WAUKESHA (CITY) 3100 returned/in person
BROOKFIELD(CITY) 2550 returned/in person (3500 req so far)
MILWAUKEE (OLD NUMBERS)- 15000(through monday) returned/in person
GREEN BAY (CITY) 3700 issued 1000 more ordered (so far)

FINAL Debate link here.


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posted by CAC at 07:13 PM

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