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May 29, 2012

Wisconsin Recall Early Voting Update

Total statewide absentees (in-house early and mailed) with 6 days left to go: 113,000
2010: 230,000 issued.

Total early votes cast in Milwaukee and Madison: 21,600 (15k in Milwaukee, 6800 in Madison). Assuming every single vote is for Tom Barrett (not likely), some perspective:

Total votes cast for Democratic candidates Milwaukee and Dane counties in:
2012 recall primary: 229,000
2011 supreme court: 262,000
2010 election: 360,000 (Walker won statewide by 128k)
2008 presidential: 526,000

Total votes cast in the 2010 matchup between Barrett and Walker, wherein Barrett got 360,000 votes from the two largest cities? 2,100,000. We may not even reach that level of overall turnout, if this is the "strongest" showing we are getting in early voting. Statewide absentees are at under 6% of the total showing in 2010, and Milwaukee and Madison's share right now is at just over 1%.

Assuming every single vote that is early is for Barrett, he is between the 2011 total and the 2010 total from both counties.

So while the Democrats are focusing hard on early voting, the number so far in their strongest areas- 21,800- is under a tenth of the total vote from the recall primary and will probably beat out a tenth of the vote from Prosser V Klopp.

Republicans need to seriously vote like hell early or on election day, but the totals from the Democrats so far are a bit...low...for all the hype and worrying.

digg this
posted by CAC at 01:56 PM

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