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May 17, 2012

Gallup: Romney's Favorables Rise to 50%; Still Low

Sure, still low, but better, and headed in the right direction.

Bill Clinton, Gallup notes, had a 38% favorable rating in March (not May) of 1992; by May, he became better known and improved that figure to 50% -- also low, but enough to win.

Via Hot Air, two more minor polls show Romney very, very slightly ahead.

Which is nice news after yesterday's poop-in-the-punchbowl FoxNews poll, which has Obama up seven, 46-39.

It should always be remembered that polls have a Margin of Error of +/- three or four or even five points (or more), with 95% confidence -- 95% of time the "real number," if you asked everyone in the population, will be within that margin of error. 5% of the time the result will be completely outside the margin of error, and simply wrong.

But even when a poll is accurate, it is only accurate, as your GPS might say, within 100 meters.

FoxNews says the lead they show is "just outside" the margin of error. Perhaps. But there is that 1 in 20 polls which are simply erroneous from the start. Given that everyone else is showing a tight election, many with leads for Romney, this poll seems to just be wrong. Gallup has it 45-45 today, for example.

One more fun fact: 86% of Republicans know spending has gone up the past 10 years; 81% of independents know that.

And what of our Intellectual Elite, aka the liberal Democratic Party?

61% know this basic fact.|

Even worse, among the self-declared elite Rasmussen terms the "Political Class," only 66% know this elemental, basic bit of knowledge. While 85% of the "mainstream" (non-political class) are aware of it.

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posted by Ace at 03:54 PM

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