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May 17, 2012

WEEKLY AOSHQ WISCONSIN RECALL PROJECTION 5/17/2012

After three straight polls released showing Walker ahead and Republicans hyper-mobilized, this week's projection shows an expanding lead for the Governor, now slightly larger than what he enjoyed in 2010. Barrett has failed to see any bounce from the primary, the DNC has refused to kick him cash, a positive jobs report was pushed out a month early and a deficit report friday sank the "Wisconsin is still in the hole" meme. To recap the polling numbers, Daily Kos' PPP poll showed Walker up 50-45, We Ask America showed him up 52-43, and Marquette University shows him up 50-44. Plugging in the numbers and taking enthusiasm levels into acount, here is the latest from the Ace of Spades HQ Decision Desk:

WALKERRECALLPROJECTION5172012


Walker continues to eat into traditionally Democratic territory in the Southwest, solidifies his support in the South East and much of the north, and weakens the Democratic advantage in the Madison area. Per Marquette's release, Barrett has an abysmal +12 advantage in the Madison Metro area, a dramatic drop from Klopp in 2011. He is favored 2-1 in Milwaukee but as we saw in the Supreme Court race, those voters didn't feel so compelled to show up. Mayor Barrett has technically just under 3 weeks to turn things around, but in actuality he has just 12 days to grab a headline, since most will tune out over the three weekends coming, especially Memorial Day.

The Wisconsin GOP ground game is simply astonishing. They have contacted well over a million voters, boast thousands of volunteers, and the enthusiasm numbers in non-partisan polling show the results: 91% of Republicans plan on voting June 5th, a level which, if it holds, means near-Presidential race turnout. Meanwhile, stories of liberal frustration at their party continue to mount, on-the-ground reports about Walker's support continue to grow, and Barrett grows more and more desperate.

How big of a shift are we seeing in the Republican's favor? Take a look at the three maps below. The left shows Walker's win in 2010. The right, Obama's in 2008 when he destroyed McCain. The bottom is Prosser's narrow win in 2011:

DifferentSwingsMap

There's a lot more/darker red this time than even 2010.

What remains to be seen is if the Democrats can somehow close the gap, or if Walker is heading for a blowout win. If it is the latter, I don't think I need to spell out the ramifications for November. The Wisconsin Democrats have grown desperate enough to start whispers of "internal polls" showing the race a tie, of course without divulging their numbers and the methodology. Probably because they are pulling that out of their ass. If PPP-SEIU-KOS can't get Barrett close...

Search #AOSHQDD or just follow me directly on twitter for updates as the race unfolds.

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posted by CAC at 04:52 PM

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