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May 15, 2012

Womens War On Obama

Our resident poll addict, CAC, covered this last night but I think it deserves some prime time attention.

Romney leads overall 46% to 43% among registered voters but the real treat is the breakdown among women.

Romney leads among women by two points [46%-44%]. This is a dramatic turnaround from even a few weeks ago, when the Left was singing the dopey "war on women" refrain from every rooftop. I guess it didn't really stick. Think Progress' Judd Legum tweeted that if Romney wins women in the fall, his margin of victory overall will be impressive. Indeed. Score one for stay-at-home moms, at least for the moment.

Poor little Julia hit hardest.

Now, this is May, this poll could very well be an outlier, maybe they over-sampled married women where Romney has led before (or conversely maybe other polls have over-sampled single women who give Obama his traditional advantage with women) and a million other things. Did I mention it's May?

I can't find the link but someone on Twitter was watching Chuck Todd's daily Obama ad show on MSNBC and said Obama spokestool Stephanie Cutter was on attacking the methodology of this poll. Yes, those darn rightwing nut jobs at CBS/New York Times. Funny but I don't recall her slamming polls that showed Obama up thanks to ridiculously over-sampling Democrats.

They need the narrative to be "Romney hates women and they hate him back". It was never true but if polling starts showing it, they know they are in big, big trouble.

Added: Here's the Cutter/Todd conversation on the "bias" in this poll.

Chuck Todd: “This is such a resounding number, it’s within any margin of error you want to create… That’s a lot of people saying he did this for politics.”

Cutter: “We can’t put the methodology of that poll aside, because the methodology was significantly biased–”

Todd: “You think this is so flawed, that this number–”

Cutter: “This is a biased sample.”

Todd: “This three to one margin is somehow going to shrink down the other way?”

Cutter: “I don’t want to go through methodology on your show. I think your readers – I think your viewers would be pretty bored by it.”

Todd: “They’re junkies. They like this sample.”

Cutter: “They sampled a biased sample, so they re-biased the same sample. I think that the results of that poll are probably pretty flawed.”

Problem for Team Stupid: The partisan breakdown is the same as last month's CBS/NYT poll which showed an Obama lead.


So this is more along the lines of "a chew toy to enjoy and keep an eye on" then a sign it's in the bag but still...enjoy.


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posted by DrewM. at 10:30 AM

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