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May 02, 2012

New Marquette Law Poll Wisconsin Recall: WALKER BESTS BARRETT BY 1 IN LV, TRAILS 1 IN RV SUBSTANTIAL SHARE OF D PRIMARY VOTE ACTUALLY R (17%)


LINK NOW AVAILABLE WITH CROSSTABS
WALKER TRAILS BARRETT 46-47 AMONGST REGISTERED VOTERS.
WALKER BEATS FALK 49-42 IN SAME POLL OF REGISTERED.

LIKELY VOTER MATCHUPS:
WALKER 48% TO bARRETT 47%
WALKER 49% TO FALK 43%
PREVIOUS POLLING:
PPP (D-KOS) WALKER 50 BARRETT 45 WALKER 50 FALK 43
PREVIOUS MARQUETTE RELEASE GAVE WALKER 47-45 LEAD OVER BARRETT 49-45 LEAD OVER FALK

*UPDATE* LITTLE CHANGE IN WALKER FAVORABLES. PER POLL DIRECTOR FRANKIN: "VOTERS HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY MADE UP THEIR MINDS"

MORE UPDATES:
BARRETT CRUSHING FALK IN PRIMARY RACE BUT PLENTY OF UNDECIDEDS LEFT (HINT HINT GOP VOTERS CONSIDERING VOTING IN D PRIMARY FOR FALK): 38% TO 21%.

BARRETT DISAPPROVAL NUMBERS NOW VIRTUALLY MATCH APPROVAL, TAKING HIT FROM FALK AND WALKER. FALK NUMBERS DOWN TOO, SAME DEAL. WALKER NUMBERS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED

17% OF "DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS" ACTUALLY REPUBLICANS.

More updates in bold:
Crosstabs: Walker wins substantial share of non-white vote against both Falk and Barrett (low 30s) these voters not as likely to show up
Crosstabs: Walker wins with Indies against both Falk and Barrett
Crosstabs: Little partisan gap between Rs and Ds, slightly more Ds in poll

I have an inkling that last statistic about Republican meddling will explode on polling like this, but I still hope that Rs vote in their own as a sign of solidarity.

Before anyone says don't follow the polls, they matter this close to an election. The Democratic primary leader from this poll will likely get a further boost, especially if they are really leading Walker in head-to-head polling.
THAT said, there has been an astonishing drought of polling data for so critical a race, but that will change after next week's Democratic primary.

One bright glimmer of hope- the election is five weeks away, and we saw what the polling deficit for Prosser did to his chances in getting re-elected last year: nothing.






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