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April 26, 2012

D+9 Poll of Registered Voters: Romney 47% Obama 46% (Bonus Map)

The weekly YouGov/Economist poll, which had already shown Romney shrinking the gap in it's previous weekly release, now gives Mitt a tiny lead amongst registered voters surveyed. Partisan breakdown is 42% Democrat, 33% Republican, 24% Independent, and age groups, race and gender all break down matching registered voter population.

Further, amongst hispanics (which every other pollster has screamed HUGE GAP OMGZ! DEMOGRAPHIC DOOOOOM): Obama 52%, Romney 42%.
Amongst women: Obama 49% Romney 45%. So much for the War on Women.

Then (for me) the moneyshot: when asked who they thought would win, Obama is down to just 52% of respondents, Romney comes in at 44%. This is significant, as many voters oftentimes break with whomever seems popular and destined to win. The perception that you have a candidate that can win boosts turnout and enthusiasm amongst your base, particularly after a daunting primary in which the eventual winner did little or nothing to pitch themselves to them.

Update- A few morons mentioned to me there is a lot of eeyoring today, particularly at a few sites I will not name, because of a few maps floating out there I'm not going to link. Well guess what? They're wrong or Im wearing a shirt made out of bacon. AoSHQ map as of 4/26/2012 below:


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Boom.

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posted by CAC at 04:21 PM

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