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March 05, 2012

Polls Show Ohio As a Toss-Up

CAC writes:

PPP has it now Romney +1 37-36, leading amongst those who decided in last few days. Numbers currently only on twitter (@ppppolls) but should be up on their main site soon.
Larry Sabato, I think correctly, pegged Romney carrying 6-7 states on Super Tuesday.

But Rasmussen has Santorum +1. ARG has Romney +7, and Qunnippiac has it Romney +3.

Of course that is current sentiment. But people have been casting early ballots for weeks.

Among such voters, a Suffolk poll says that Santorum has a seventeen point lead.

According to the survey, 13% of likely voters have already cast their vote. A seventeen-point advantage could be decisive, especially if turnout drops off tomorrow and that percentage of early voting ends up being larger than 13%.

A Marist poll has Romney up 3 among early voters. Which I think is wrong. It makes a lot more sense that Santorum would be.

In any event, the smaller the subgroup you're looking at, the higher the Margin of Error.

posted by Ace at 04:26 PM

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Among such voters, a Suffolk poll says that Santorum has a seventeen point lead. According to the survey, 13% of likely voters have already cast their vote. A seventeen-point advantage could be decisive, especially if turnout drops off tomorrow and that percentage of early voting ends up being larger than 13%. A Marist poll has Romney up 3 among early voters. Which I think is wrong. It makes a lot more sense that Santorum would be. In any event, the smaller the subgroup you're looking at, the higher the Margin of Error. posted by Ace at 04:26 PM \| Access Comments <script language="javascript" src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/addyn/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=700;cookie=info;target=_blank;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]"></script><noscript><a href="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adlink/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" target="_blank"><img src="http://adserver.adtechus.com/adserv/3.0/5235/1131537/0/170/ADTECH;loc=300;key=key1+key2+key3+key4;grp=[group]" border="0" width="300" height="250"></a></noscript>	Recent Comments Bulgaroctonus : "290 Yep, Tom, I think that’s correct. ..." Alberta Oil Peon: "There's a dynasty and story of familial bloodshed ..." Tom Servo: "272 It’s my understanding that Mohammed init ..." Bulgaroctonus : "285 I heard that response in Terri Garr’s vo ..." Montec: "Fuck your precious democracy Brandon. ..." 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