Polls Show Ohio As a Toss-Up

CAC writes:

PPP has it now Romney +1 37-36, leading amongst those who decided in last few days. Numbers currently only on twitter (@ppppolls) but should be up on their main site soon.

Larry Sabato, I think correctly, pegged Romney carrying 6-7 states on Super Tuesday.

But Rasmussen has Santorum +1. ARG has Romney +7, and Qunnippiac has it Romney +3.

Of course that is current sentiment. But people have been casting early ballots for weeks.

Among such voters, a Suffolk poll says that Santorum has a seventeen point lead.

According to the survey, 13% of likely voters have already cast their vote. A seventeen-point advantage could be decisive, especially if turnout drops off tomorrow and that percentage of early voting ends up being larger than 13%.

A Marist poll has Romney up 3 among early voters. Which I think is wrong. It makes a lot more sense that Santorum would be.

In any event, the smaller the subgroup you're looking at, the higher the Margin of Error.

posted by Ace at 04:26 PM

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