Sponsored Content
« Monday Morning Open Thread | Main | Late Summer Wildfires Raging in Central Texas »
September 05, 2011

CAC's Election Projection- September 2011 Edition

Here is my first official projection for the 2012 Presidential election. I will upload one at the beginning of each month through August of next year, and weekly starting the first week of September. Keep in mind that we are well over a year away, so a plethora of events can alter this.

If the election were held today, President Obama would lose by a margin of 54% to 46% to an unnamed challenger. The electoral vote would break down like this:

AoS Projection for 2012 Presidential Election- September 2011 ed

The Republican would get 290 electoral votes, the President 217, and 31 are undecided. Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire are all likely Republican gains, with polling in all three atrocious for the President, thumb-on-the-scale data out of the Tar Heel State by Particularly Partisan People notwithstanding. New Hampshire has been the most fascinating state out of these three for me, as Gallup has found it has become a Republican state for the first time in years in terms of party ID. In fact, per Gallup, it is now one of the more Republican states in the country. Change, indeed.

Obama has become downright radioactive in Pennsylvania, and has been for several months now. The eternal tease for Republicans, it turns red for the first time in 24 years. I know, many of you will argue about fraud in Philadelphia until you are blue in the face. But if they couldn't steal it at the last minute last year from Pat Toomey, before the Republicans gained pretty firm control over the state government, I doubt they can pull that off next year.

Wisconsin remains a point of interest for me and other people who pull numbers out of their ass election analysts who have been watching the recent elections there for clues as to what lies in store next year. Governor Walker seems to have recovered in his popularity, with a recall effort against him now polling in the negative and positive press about the results of his budget finally hitting local media. Feingold's decision to steer clear of any elections next year and Thompson's willingness to jump in point to a cautiously confident Republican party in the state and a less-than-excited Democratic one. How that translates for the Presidential race remains to be seen.

Hat tip again to John E for the new design.

digg this
posted by CAC at 09:41 AM

| Access Comments

Recent Comments
JQ: "mellow wakeup: youtu.be/Q29ijCTNpaw ..."

JQ: "Evidently, Puddleglum ..."

Puddleglum: "(peeks in. past 0800Z) Tech Thread runnin late? ..."

STELLA!!!!: " the way King Creole hinted at what Elvis could ha ..."

Wolfus Aurelius, Dreaming of Elsewhere [/i] [/b]: "[i]Audie Murphy was a certified badass who played ..."

Ye Venerable Miklos: "Sounds good. March *should* be still dark and chil ..."

JQ: "My precious darling Cat is out on patrol atm. Not ..."

Miklos notes that Cindy Mandina is a very pretty lady: "What's goin' on where you are? Posted by: Wolfus ..."

Wolfus Aurelius, Dreaming of Elsewhere [/i] [/b]: "[i]Mornin' Wolfus! 45F, windy and still dark here ..."

Wolfus Aurelius, Dreaming of Elsewhere [/i] [/b]: "[i]That doesn't sound right at all. It should be S ..."

JQ: "Mornin' Wolfus! 45F, windy and still dark here ..."

Wolfus Aurelius, Dreaming of Elsewhere [/i] [/b]: "Morning, all! I'm up much earlier than I planned. ..."

Recent Entries

Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64