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September 05, 2011

CAC's Election Projection- September 2011 Edition

Here is my first official projection for the 2012 Presidential election. I will upload one at the beginning of each month through August of next year, and weekly starting the first week of September. Keep in mind that we are well over a year away, so a plethora of events can alter this.

If the election were held today, President Obama would lose by a margin of 54% to 46% to an unnamed challenger. The electoral vote would break down like this:

AoS Projection for 2012 Presidential Election- September 2011 ed

The Republican would get 290 electoral votes, the President 217, and 31 are undecided. Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire are all likely Republican gains, with polling in all three atrocious for the President, thumb-on-the-scale data out of the Tar Heel State by Particularly Partisan People notwithstanding. New Hampshire has been the most fascinating state out of these three for me, as Gallup has found it has become a Republican state for the first time in years in terms of party ID. In fact, per Gallup, it is now one of the more Republican states in the country. Change, indeed.

Obama has become downright radioactive in Pennsylvania, and has been for several months now. The eternal tease for Republicans, it turns red for the first time in 24 years. I know, many of you will argue about fraud in Philadelphia until you are blue in the face. But if they couldn't steal it at the last minute last year from Pat Toomey, before the Republicans gained pretty firm control over the state government, I doubt they can pull that off next year.

Wisconsin remains a point of interest for me and other people who pull numbers out of their ass election analysts who have been watching the recent elections there for clues as to what lies in store next year. Governor Walker seems to have recovered in his popularity, with a recall effort against him now polling in the negative and positive press about the results of his budget finally hitting local media. Feingold's decision to steer clear of any elections next year and Thompson's willingness to jump in point to a cautiously confident Republican party in the state and a less-than-excited Democratic one. How that translates for the Presidential race remains to be seen.

Hat tip again to John E for the new design.

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posted by CAC at 09:41 AM

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