Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Support


Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!





Recent Entries
Perry on Hannity's Radio Show, Now | Main | The Dumbest Thing I've Ever Read
August 30, 2011

How Much Political Trouble Is Obama In? If You Look At The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, He's In Even More Trouble Than You Thought

Bill McInturff of the Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies is publicly releasing a report on the current mood of the country.

Lots of interesting stuff in it. But the most interesting stuff is about the Michigan Index on Consumer Sentiment.

No president has been reelected when the Index stood at 75 or below (date of snapshot unspecified; I assume they mean "on the day of the election").

The average read of the Index for successful reelection bids is 95.9.

The average read for unsuccessful reelection bids is 74.8.

The current read on the index? 76.2, just above the average for unsuccessful bids.

Nah, I'm totally lying, just to get your attention focused on the real read: The Index currently stands at 55.7, much, much lower than even the average for reelection losers.

Liberals are fond of saying "Well Reagan slipped below 40% before he got reelected."

Well, yes, but as is often noted, in this quarter of his term, GDP was growing by something like 9%. And the Index reflected that -- consumer sentiment was at 90+, and would improve even further by election day.

The proper comparison isn't to Reagan, but to Carter, and... well I'll wait for that stuff.

The Index... has been running at least since 1961. lu asked how long it's been running.

I haven't got a firm answer, but I know the basic metrics of it were devised in the 40s, but the national telephone polling to get the index as we know it today started sometime later. Maybe in 1961, maybe before then.


digg this
posted by Ace at 04:37 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
AltonJackson: "it was 261 ;) ..."

sven10077@sven10077[/i][/b][/s]: "269 Posted by: blaster at October 21, 2014 07:46 P ..."

AltonJackson: "dare I say it? The Captain & Teneal? ..."

pep: "[i]271 Didn't the Ink Spots break up and reform a ..."

---: "Hall & Oates ..."

Where will Nuremberg be this time?: "If there are not thousands of prosecutions followe ..."

blaster: "Err @261. I swear it was 260 ..."

simplemind: "Look, even prog's know its ridiculous and demeanin ..."

sven10077@sven10077[/i][/b][/s]: "268 Posted by: DangerGirl and her 1.21 gigawatt Sa ..."

Countrysquire, feeling reasonably fresh down there: "Have Elvis Costello & Diana Krall ever made a reco ..."

AltonJackson: "Lorreta Lynne & Conway Twitty ..."

seamrog: "Didn't the Ink Spots break up and reform as the Li ..."

Recent Entries
Search


MuNuvians
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat
Archives
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64