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August 30, 2011

How Much Political Trouble Is Obama In? If You Look At The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, He's In Even More Trouble Than You Thought

Bill McInturff of the Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies is publicly releasing a report on the current mood of the country.

Lots of interesting stuff in it. But the most interesting stuff is about the Michigan Index on Consumer Sentiment.

No president has been reelected when the Index stood at 75 or below (date of snapshot unspecified; I assume they mean "on the day of the election").

The average read of the Index for successful reelection bids is 95.9.

The average read for unsuccessful reelection bids is 74.8.

The current read on the index? 76.2, just above the average for unsuccessful bids.

Nah, I'm totally lying, just to get your attention focused on the real read: The Index currently stands at 55.7, much, much lower than even the average for reelection losers.

Liberals are fond of saying "Well Reagan slipped below 40% before he got reelected."

Well, yes, but as is often noted, in this quarter of his term, GDP was growing by something like 9%. And the Index reflected that -- consumer sentiment was at 90+, and would improve even further by election day.

The proper comparison isn't to Reagan, but to Carter, and... well I'll wait for that stuff.

The Index... has been running at least since 1961. lu asked how long it's been running.

I haven't got a firm answer, but I know the basic metrics of it were devised in the 40s, but the national telephone polling to get the index as we know it today started sometime later. Maybe in 1961, maybe before then.

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posted by Ace at 04:37 PM

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