New Rasmussen Poll Will Tag Perry As Frontrunner

A new Rasmussen poll set for release at 1pm (I think) will have the field thus:

Perry 29, Romney 18, Bachmann 13, Paul 9.

Thanks to Gabe for that.

Update: Poll posted here.

[T]his marks a significant jump in support for Perry, who officially entered the race on Saturday although his candidacy had been rumored for weeks. Just over two weeks ago, a survey of likely primary voters found Romney with 22% support, closely followed by Perry at 18% and Bachman with 16% of the vote.

“Governor Perry is enjoying a bounce from entering the race at precisely the right time”, said Scott Rasmussen. “Now the difficult part begins for the new frontrunner. It’s much easier winning support when people are hoping you will get in the race, than retaining support when you are the frontrunner.”

Ed runs down the crosstabs.

Perry scores highest among men (32%) and women (25%) than any of his competitors. Ron Paul scores best among young voters by a wide margin (29%), but Perry is the only other candidate in double digits (17%). Perry wins all of the other age demographics, and he also scores highest among Republicans (29%) and non-Republicans (28%). Perry also wins every income demographic, above the $40K level with 31% or more of the vote.

On ideology, the Texas governor has wide appeal. Perry gets a full third of self-identified conservatives, beating Romney (16%) and Bachmann (14%) combined. Romney narrowly edges Perry among moderates (27/25) and wins clearly among liberals, but Perry still comes in second, 24/15. He wins easily among Tea Party “members” with a whopping 39% to Bachmann’s second-place finish of 21%. Perry also wins among non-Tea Party members over Romney, albeit narrowly at 27/24, and has a clear victory among those unsure of their Tea Party affiliation. 24/13 over Romney.

As I've mentioned, I've been looking for a unifying candidate, one with wide appeal.

And I will in fact trade width over depth -- I'd rather have a candidate liked by 80% of the party than one loved by 30% and disliked by many of the others (and disliked by independents as well).

Perry's mention of a "treasonous" QE3 and, worse yet, a Jesse Helms-style warning to Bernacke to not visit Texas, is immediately troubling, though. I've been hoping for a candidate who did not set out to frighten independents, and with one of his first statements, Perry did just that.

I hope he'll knock that off. Despite the lefty Greg Sergeant's claim, he does seem to be recalibrating that.

The Governor was expressing his frustration with the current economic situation and the out of control spending that persists in Washington. Most Americans would agree that spending more money is not the answer to the economic issues facing the country.

posted by Ace at 12:41 PM

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