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August 13, 2011

Ames Straw Poll Results. Bachmann Wins

Above the post update:
Bachmann received 4823 votes (28.55%)
Ron Paul got robbed! He finished 2nd with 4,671 (27.65%)
Tim Pawlenty 3rd with 2,293 (he's done)
Rick Santorum 4th
Herman Cain 5th

Rick Perry got 718 write-ins, more than Romney got. Hmmmm.

Apparently not receiving a lot of write-in votes: Sarah Palin.

16,892 total votes.

Clearly the ticket will be Bachmann/Paul.

Original Post:
First let me say what a scam this is. It's simply a fundraising gig for the Iowa GOP. Candidates have to pay to get space and voters have to buy tickets to vote.

Also...Get over yourself Iowa. Someone has to go first and I guess you can make a case for Iowa. What drives me nuts is people who act as if Iowa going first was ordained in the Book of Genesis or something. Some Iowans seem to think living in Iowa makes them more serious about this process and that they have some preternatural ability to screen candidates.

Results should start coming in around 6 eastern. Now FNC is saying 6:45 or so. Maybe when I saw 6 is was central time.

The conventional wisdom is Pawlenty needs to come in 3rd or better with the assumption being Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann will be 1-2. Honestly, with Perry getting in today, I don't see how coming in anywhere behind Bachmann helps T-Paw. He's still in the back of the pack nationally, so, "I'm Number 3!" in Iowa (when Mitt isn't really competing and Perry just jumped in) changes that. There's just not a lot of rationale to his campaign at that point. He's also going to have trouble fundraising without some sort of jump here. This might be the beginning of the end for him.

Also baring a miracle, Rick Santorum probably fades away after this.

Herman Cain gave a great speech to a mostly empty hall after many people already voted. At some point soon he's got to figure this isn't happening and has better things to do with his time.

No matter how he finishes, Newt probably stays in since he's digging the attention.

Huntsman really is focusing on New Hampshire for what that's worth so today doesn't mean much to him.

The other interesting thing to watch will be the write-in vote. It's the first time they've had them so expect Perry and Palin to get some play.

Of course, all of this might change depending on the outcome. We'll see.


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posted by DrewM. at 05:48 PM

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