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August 08, 2011

If This Is Obama's Low Point, It Might Be Well-Timed For Him

On Twitter, Larry Sabato (the pollster) opines:

Obviously this is Obama's low point. Whether he recovers depends on unemployment and GDP more than SuperCommittee debt proposal.

I'm not so sure this is "obvious." People have a weird psychological compulsion to predict the future being essentially like the current moment. So to Sabato, "obviously" the economy will not deteriorate further; there will be no second recession. In his mind, whether he knows it or not, he "predicts" continue sputtering growth of 1-1.5%.

That may happen. But the alternate scenarios -- an improvement, or, especially, a further collapse -- seem more likely.

If this is Obama's actual low point, he may benefit from it in 2012. Perversely, he has made such a catastrophic mess of things he virtually has no place to go but up.

He may reduce the public's expectations so much -- get them, as Ming the Merciless said, to be satisfied with less -- that simply avoiding a complete collapse of the US economy will be marked as a positive accomplishment in his favor.

I don't think that is likely, but the situation is becoming so bad that any marginal improvement (or simple stabilization) could wind up reassuring people.

Of course, Sabato might simply be wrong from the starting premise. Maybe Obama's actual low point is yet to come.

And God save our nation if that is the case.


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posted by Ace at 02:49 PM

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