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August 03, 2011

Ohai, DOOM! Didn't See You Standing There.


Guest DOOM! today. Monty, who is one of those increasingly rare Americans with a job, needed a last minute stand-in due to some work commitments.

Speaking of jobs, the ADP employment report is out this morning. Private sector employment up 114K - close to expectations, but too low to move the needle on the unemployment rate if it mirrors the BLS survey data that will be released on Friday.

The DJIA has dropped each of last 8 days for a total pullback of around 850 points with yesterday's selloff being pretty harrowing at around 250 points. This was the biggest one-day drop since October 2008, so ... inherited from Booooooshhhh!. Gold? It's over $1,660 an ounce and just keeps on rising.

So Recovery Summer II™ continues unabated.

Return of the bear market? Faber's a perma-bear. All he has to do is wait around long enough and he'll be right. Of course, this time ...

Somebody at al Reuters is on the DOOM! train. I'm not so sure I agree with their "go East young man" outlook. Trying to find a bright spot in this global depression (hey, just being honest) is a fool's errand.

Jimmy P. points out that the U.S. economy doesn't like to just move sideways. It's either growing or contracting. I'll take the under. He also notes an interesting tell on entering a recession from changes in the unemployment rate, but I think we're in uncharted territory here.

Paul Ryan has on op-ed in today's Wall Street Journal that's worth a read, but who needs words when you can put DOOM! in a couple of charts?

The debt ceiling deal did nothing to change this, and I'm not confident that even if the GOP were to take the White House and the Senate in 2012 we'd be able to do much about it. There's only so much that Hobbit terrorist hostage-takers can do.

And as far as that deal goes, there's been a lot of back-and-forth on whether the super committee process allows for tax increases either legally or practically. There are a couple of good rundowns on this from Keith Hennessey and Andy McCarthy that both boil down to: "hells yeah it does" even though they conflict with each other.


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posted by Andy at 08:50 AM

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