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November 06, 2010

Another Victory For Liberals: Democrats Held On To Jewish Vote

Really? Is this what we're crowing about? That Democrats managed to hold on to a demographic they've owned since the first Shivouas?

I guess take your sweet, sweet victories where you can find them.

Remember New York Times columnist Charles M. Blow's worry, expressed here, that President Obama's alleged unpopularity with Jews was going to (finally) undo the more than 80-year association between Jews and the Democratic Party? How'd that go, Mr. Blow?

Hah! Mr. Suck more like it, huh, Eric?


Interesting, while Sestak could not squeak out a victory, he did even better with Jewish voters than did most Democrats, which was pretty damn good. Sestak polled 71-23 percent among Pennsylvania Jews over his Republican opponent Pat Toomey, according to a J Street poll; the same one that showed Jews, nationally, embracing Democrats by a 66 to 31 percent margin. Now compare this to 37 percent Democratic vote for white voters in general in House races, according to a CNN exit poll.


Now, I searched in vain in Alterman's piece for some context for these numbers; that is to say, in previous years, how have Jews voted?

There's a reason Alterman omits numbers that might show you the trend.

And the coalition, placing ads here and in the Jewish communities of other battleground states, is attempting to play on those doubts, attempting to drive up a Jewish vote for Republican presidential candidates nationally gauged at 11 percent in 1992, at 19 percent in 2000 and 25 percent in 2004.

22% of Jews voted for John McCain (as opposed to 78% for Obama), which is what I expected, that is, Obama grabbing a bigger share than other recent candidates.

So Obama had the Republican vote share down to 22%, and this year it zooms back up to 31%, consistent with the basic trendline of Jews moving away from the Democrats bit-by-bit every couple of years.

And for Eric Alterman, this is a big success.

Look, Jews are not going to prefer the GOP over the Democrats for at least 30 years or so. Yeah, every two years, Republicans put out our typical "Hey, maybe this year Jews finally abandon the Democrats" articles, but we know that's not true -- it's an advocacy type thing, letting persuadable Jews know that more and more Jews are voting conservative, but we don't believe that spin. I push these inevitable articles every election cycle mostly just to use one of the oldest headlines I've posted on the site: DNC Rues Clues It Might Lose Jews.

But while outright victory isn't coming anytime soon, every cycle, yeah, a nontrivial 3-5% of Jews do move rightward.

Take your victories where you can, Eric Alterman. Tell me in your next piece how the Democrats managed to hold on to the crucial demographic of young unmarried female hipsters.

And I'll raise you: The GOP continues to do surprisingly well with the next of kin of Mary Jo Kopechne.

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posted by Ace at 04:10 PM

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