Russ from Winterset: IA, MO, IL, KS, NE

I'm starting off with the "contested" races in these states per Real Clear Politics.

Send your tips to farmerruss, at the gmail place, and hopefully I'll be adding to the number of "contested" races in this group as the day wears on. Governor, Senate & House races are going to be featured, but I'll take tips on AG, SoS, and interesting ballot measures as well. Remember, if your "safe Democratic" district starts to lean rightward, I will add it to the contested list as I get tips.

Starting from reddest red to bluest blue. Potential pickups signified with (PU), otherwise the seat is already (R):

UPDATE: Schilling beats Hare in IL-17 for a Republican pickup. Kinzinger also beats Halvorson in IL-11 giving another pickup to the good guys. Also add Hultgren defeating Foster in IL-14 for another pickup in the House.

Hartzler also unseats Skelton in MO-4 for another Republican pickup. Kirk also picked up Obama's old Senate seat over Corleone in Illinois.

Walsh is also beating Bean in IL-8 for another possible pickup, but he's only ahead by about 800+ votes with 98.4% in, so that one is headed for a recount, IMHO.

KANSAS:
Gov. is "safe R" (Brownback +27)
Senate is "safe R" (Moran +40)
KS-3 Yoder rated "likely R"
No drama likely - Looks like a BLOODBATH of Red.

NEBRASKA:
Gov. is "safe R" (Heineman +42)
NE-2 Terry rated "likely R"
No drama likely - BLOODBATH

MISSOURI:
Senate is "lean R" (Blunt +11)
Blunt up 61-33 with about 3% in- now 62-32 with 6.3% in - now 58-37 @ 10.2% - CALLED FOR BLUNT with 38% in.
MO-3 Carnahan(D) vs. Martin (R), "likely D" (PU)
51-47 Martin right out of the gate - 53-44 Carnahan @ 23% in - Carnahan 52-45 @ 23% in - Martin within 400 votes 48-48 @ 78% in
MO-4 Skelton (D) vs. Hartzler (R), "toss up" (PU)
Skelton up early - Now 48-48 with about 3% in - 4.8% in Skelton up 49-47 - Hartzler up 51-45 with 9.2% in - 52-43 @ 12.3% in - 51-45 @ 21.3% in - 52-43 @ 43% in - 50-45 @ 77% in - 50-46 @ 86% in
MO-5 Cleaver (D) vs. Turk (R), "likely D" (PU)
Turk up early, but probably an anomaly - Turk still up 58-39 @ 9% in - CALLED FOR CLEAVER
We've got a chance to steal a few house seats here.

ILLINOIS:
Gov. Brady (R) vs. Quinn (D), "toss up" (Brady +5) (PU)
Quinn 58-35 with about 27% in - now 55-38 @ 34.2% in - Quinn 47-46 @ 87% in - same @ 91% in
Senate Kirk (R) vs. Giannoulias (D) "toss up" (Kirk +3) (PU)
Corleone up early, with 24.4% in - now 56-39 @ 30.6% in - now 53-42 @ 38.4% in - 50-45 @ 53% - KIRK FLIPS THE LEAD 48-46 @ 87% in - same @ 92% in - same with 94.7% in - CALLED FOR KIRK, he's up 84k votes with about 98% in
IL-8 Bean (D) vs. Walsh (R) "lean D" (Bean +3) (PU)
Bean up early, not bad - Bean 50-47 @ 63% in - 48-48 with Walsh down 65 votes @ 87% in - Bean 49-48 @ 89% - WALSH FLIPS IT 49-48 with 96% in - Walsh up by 92 votes with 97.8% in - now Walsh up by 850 votes @ 97.8% in
IL-10 Seals (D) vs. Dold (R) "toss up" (PU)OOPS, NOT A PICKUP OPPORTUNITY, MY BAD Dold 52-48 with about 18% in - still 52-48 with 78% in - still @ 52-48 with 82.8% in - 51-49 with 89% in - same with 93% in - same with 93.5% in
IL-11 Halvorson (D) vs. Kinzinger (R), "likely R" (PU)
50-50 @ 12.1% in - 51-49 Kinzinger @ 14.8% - 54-46 @ 36.5% in - 55-45 with 40.8% in - CALLED KINZINGER
IL-14 Foster (D) vs. Hultgren (R) "lean R" (PU)
48-48 @ 8.1% in - 50-46 Foster @ 12.3% in - Hultgren 51-45 with 20.8% in - 52-44 @ 31.3% in - 51-45 with 75% in - CALLED FOR HULTGREN
IL-17 Hare (D) vs. Schilling (R), "lean R" (PU)
49-46 Schilling with 1.3% in - Now Schilling 60-36 with 10.3% in - 56-39 @ 21.1% in - 56-40 @ 30.7% in - 55-40 @ 37% in - 53-43 @ 55.4% in - CALLED FOR SCHILLING
This is going to be interesting.

IOWA:
Gov. is "likely R" (Branstad +15) (PU)
CALLED FOR BRANSTAD OUT OF THE GATE
Senate is "safe R" (Grassley +31)
CALLED FOR GRASSLEY OUT OF THE GATE
IA-1 Braley (D) vs. Lange (R), "lean D" (Braley +11) (PU)
Braley 56-42 with 9% in - Boswell 53-44 @ 34% in - Braley 50-47 @ 59% in
IA-2 Loebsack (D) vs. Miller-Meeks (R), "lean D" (Loebsack +8) (PU)
Loebsack 57-40 with 21% in - Loebsack 56-42 @ 30% in - Loebsack 53-44 @ 74% in
IA-3 Boswell (D) vs. Zaun (R), "lean D" (Boswell +10) (PU)
Boswell 54-44 with 43% in - CALLED FOR BOSWELL
Governor's mansion is almost a lock, but the House seats are going to take some GOTV effort. I'm looking at IA-2 as a possible pickup, with IA-1 being my "God I hope it happens" race.

posted by Russ from Winterset at 08:30 PM

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