Geraghty: Three House Races Move to GOP; I'm Sensing the Super-Wave

As you probably know, I am (for myself) defining a real victory as the Super Wave. I know that's expectations-raising and all but that's what I want.

Is it coming? It's hard to say; it would be, as everyone keeps saying, "unprecedented." But our president is pretty unprecedented too, as he keeps informing us; and it was truly unprecedented that a Congress stand united to tell their constituents to Go Fuck Themselves (in all-caps, actually) on a crucial vote in which the public was strongly engaged.

Geraghty notes that some races, which should be safe for Democrats, keep leaning to the GOP. (Including one of the Maine races Slublog highlighted Friday, Dean Scrontas.)

The Loughlin race in Rhode Island for Patrick Kennedy's former seat -- well, I mean the People's Seat; oh you know what I mean -- is one to watch. If Loughlin wins -- and we'll know he's probably going to win when the networks refuse to call it -- the Democrats are in for a truly horrific night.
I like how Sharron Angle puts it.

Oh: This post by Nate Silver is awesome. He organizes the Congressional races by closing time (earliest first) and then by degree of difficulty for the GOP to flip -- upshot is, if at 7:30 ET PM Andy Barr is beating incumbent Chandler, the GOP is looking for at least a 62+ gain night.

If Sean Bielat beats Barney Frank, we're looking at... 111 seats.

But that of course is a big if.

But...

If...

posted by Ace at 05:41 PM

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