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October 29, 2010

Need More Motivation? Time: Many Dems To Retire If Pelosi Loses House

Beat 88 of them and maybe another 30 will up and quit.

Plus: Obi-Wan starts talking crazy.

Well, the impossible is at least within view. In a year when Republicans had to defend 18 of the 33 seats that were up and at the same time gain 11 Democrat-held seats — 10 after Scott Brown – the thing is actually conceivable, if hardly predictable. Arkansas, North Dakota, Indiana seem won, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania look good, so do Illinois and Nevada, meanwhile GOP candidates are tied or slightly ahead in Colorado and Washington and close in West Virginia — a wave could help them enough.

That is ten, but some of them are a little shaky. I know smart people who think California is this year’s lagging indicator and that Carly Fiorina will pull it off, because Boxer still can’t break 50. And, just for fun, has anyone noticed that a poll or two in Connecticut and Delaware show a slackening in the Dems’ lead there?

...

[disclaimers omitted -- he wants you to know he's just spitballing here, not predicting]

Crazy stuff happens in wave elections. And right now the “happy times” wave seems close. But if the Superwave shows up — and the Gallup low turnout number is probably indicative (at 14 this week, which is unheard of) — anything could happen. Here is the fun thought for the weekend. (Though, remember now, this is all but pure recreation.) Will certain Senate islands get washed over? Oregon and Wyden? One of the New York seats? Maryland and Mikulski? Though, as I say, if Leahy loses in Vermont you can get me at one of the local homes. Old guys can handle just so much cognitive dissonance.

Thanks to Monty.


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posted by Ace at 03:20 PM

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