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October 30, 2010
A Brief Respite From Election Concerns: Let's Worry About China InsteadWhile we've been preoccupied with the latest election polls and candidate gaffes, the rest of the world has been ambling along. And Gregg Easterbrook, taking note of some of the more hostile ambling betwixt the US and China, tries to convince us that China is no threat at all: China should not be our next whipping boyApparently Mr. Easterbrook can't conceive of a China that may believe that they can dispute American air power over their country. But what has China been up to lately? Well, in the past week:
"We're seeking the mantra of a positive, cooperative, constructive relationship," Jeff Bader of the National Security Council said Thursday.Yeah, unprecedentedly ineffective. Bush got his diplomatic ass handed to him by Jintao Hu, pursuing diplomatic talks with the expectation that economic interdependency would lead to concessions on the part of the Chinese. Didn't happen. The Chinese love diplomacy for the same reason that Iranians love it - it costs them nothing and gives them the time to do what they want. But back to Easterbrook. He eventually talks about China's naval limitations: China is expanding its navy, which today is equipped only for coastal operation, though perhaps someday will venture into the “blue water” where the United States Navy rules.But Financial Times tells us: 2010 is likely to go down as the year when China’s blue-water navy became reality. This switched on warning lights among China’s coastal neighbours as well as the US, the incumbent superpower.Attention Mr. Easterbrook: in geopolitical reality, "perhaps someday" = "this year." A lot of people believe that China's unsustainable growth rate, weakening demographics and hyperinflated real estate market will lead it to crash before it becomes a threat. But people have been making that point for nearly 10 years, and China is still growing, still modernizing its military, and still extending its influence around the world. They may indeed collapse, but sitting and hoping for it isn't a very formidable strategy. | Recent Comments
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