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October 25, 2010

CAC's US Senate Projection 10-25-2010

Based on turnout models, polling, the generic advantage and "the gift" (a thin, yellow-orange fluid which a non-housed man handed to me in a jar marked "soul" while arguing with a crowd that wasn't there, somwhere around 6th and Alameda).

Even though Connecticut is no longer in the tossup or even leaning status, this doesn't mean you morons in New England should abandon the effort to defeat that Dick. I simply don't like the trendline but numbers have been wrong.

There are now 11 seats held by Democrats "in play", 9 of which I project going to the Republican and 2 are up in the air, including my home state of California:


US Senate Projection 10252010

Buck, Raese, and Toomey have slipped a bit but I project all of them winners, albeit by varying margins. There have been some improvements since the last time as well: Angle and Kirk are polling stronger in their respective races.


The firewall for Democrats remains in the West, and despite Whitman's collapse, Fiorina has managed to hold her ground so far against Barbara Boxer in her bid to defeat the fine Ma'am from Cali. With Connecticut drifting away from us, we need to win 6 out of 7 close races to pull it off.

House Projections coming tomorrow.

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posted by CAC at 01:00 PM

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