Two Polls Suggest Toomey Has Fallen Behind Sestak;
Actual Votes Suggest Toomey's Ahead

Like Captain Ed at Hot Air, I don't know what to make of two polls (one of which has a very goofy turnout model, postulating more Democrats voting than in 2008) putting Sestak ahead. Sure, Democrats may be paying more attention now, and sure, these races turn on individual characteristics and local concerns, but I still think the main drivers here are change and the Big Red Wave, and I don't see why Toomey would now be in trouble.

As Ed says, he's not really an unknown commodity. He served three terms as Representative and then sought the senate twice. And Sestak isn't really hitting him with explosive new charges.

Roll Call suggests the polls may just be phantom gains for Sestak.

While Rep. Joe Sestak (D) appears to have seized the momentum in Pennsylvania’s Senate contest, Keystone State Republicans are far more active than Democrats in early voting activity, according to absentee balloting figures released by the state Wednesday at Roll Call’s request.

Pennsylvania voters have requested nearly 127,000 absentee ballots so far. Of that total, Republican voters made up 50 percent and Democrats made up 42 percent, according to figures collected Tuesday afternoon.

The state records show Republicans are returning their absentee ballots in greater numbers as well. The state has received about 40 percent of requested ballots, and Republican registrations outpace Democrats by 19 points, 56 percent to 37 percent, according to the state data. Absentee ballots made up 5 percent of total turnout in 2008.

Absentee ballots will probably make up a higher percentage of the total vote in a low-turnout midterm election, but not that much higher. So, Pennsylvania citizens, it is important to keep in mind the advice of Winston Wolf's great uncle, a poultry distributor named Wilheim Wolf, who advised: Gentlemen, let's not start plucking each other's cocks just yet.

Hey! How come there's not a single Be the Wave event scheduled in Pennsylvania? Are we all just going to blow it off and leave it to chance or what?

posted by Ace at 02:21 PM

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