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October 18, 2010
Gallup Confirms Eye-Popping Poll Results: GOP Has 17 Point Edge in Likely Voters
Last time it was +13 (high turnout model) or even +18 (low turnout model).
People questioned that result (including me), because it's huge, and because Gallup has been very swingy lately.
Perhaps they did two oddball polls back-to-back (they've swung that way before, GOP up big for two running polls, then tied for two running polls). More likely, though, the GOP's edge really is this big, or nearly so.
Last time, the GOP had a six point edge just with registered voters, +13 high turnout, +18 low turnout.
Now they have a five point edge with registered voters, +11 high turnout, +17 low turnout.