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October 13, 2010

CAC's Official House Predictions- 10/13/2010 edition

After reviewing the new polling, money, and generic ballot data, I am in agreement with the Huffington Post. We aren't looking at 47 seats, I was wrong.

2010 US House Races 10/13/2010 update

We are looking at 60+ (specifically 61 now).

Since the last update I have moved 14 Democratic seats from toss-up to GOP pickup:
OH-6, OH-18, IL-17, CO-7, CA-11, CA-47, PA-12, WV-1, TX-23, CT-5, AL-2, TN-4, GA-8, and NY-19.

Another 21 Dem-held seats have moved onto the toss-up map now:
IA-1, IA-2, MI-15, OH-9, WI-3, NY-4, MA-4, MA-6, ME-1, ME-2, ID-1, OR-4, PA-13, PA-17, NJ-12, MN-1, KY-3, KY-6, WV-3, CA-18, NY-20.
Currently 48 Dem-held seats are tossups compared to just 2 GOP-held in the same category.

This now pushes the total # of vulnerable Democratic seats to 109.

As a bonus...
I have included what I call the “firewall” list for Democrats this cycle.
If these start melting down, one would expect a large number of seats at said wall to also fall down, and we are onto the next firewall.

Firewall #1 was the hypothetical buffer the Democrats were working on a few weeks ago (back when they were publicizing their triage operation). As many of those seats (OH-1, AZ-1, VA-5, etc) have already imploded there isn't a point in even listing them-needless to say most if not all are colored red here.

Firewall #2:
MA-10, CT-4, CT-5, NY-1, NY-13, NY-19, NY-24,NY-25, PA-4, PA-12, VA-9, VA-11, WV-1, OH-6, OH-13, OH-18, IN-2, IL-8, IL-17, NC-2, NC-11, TN-4, FL-22, GA-2, GA-8, AL-2, MN-8, IA-3, MO-4, TX-23,
CO-7, NM-1, AZ-7, CA-11, CA-18, CA-20, CA-47, OR-5, NY-20, WA-2, WA-9

Firewall #3 are the seats just added today as tossups.

Firewall #4 (the final batch before 1894 gets one-upped):
MA-3, MA-5, RI-1, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, NJ-6, MD-5, OH-10, IL-2, IL-9, MI-5, AR-4, NC-4, MO-3, NM-3, TN-5, OK-2, CA-36, CA-37, UT-2, OR-1, FL-20, TX-27, NY-27, and CA-51 (which I currently show as a tossup due to a massive voter drive in Chula Vista and the typical voter drop off hurting the Democrat without anyone batting an eye yet).

If all of these seats flipped and Republicans managed to hang onto all their tossups and even the seats currently leaning Democrat (LA-2 and DE-AL) we would be looking at the maximum Demplosion of flipping 135 seats, beating the 1894 deluge by 5.

And now I leave you to your vapor-induced swooning or eeyore-induced whinng...

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posted by CAC at 11:11 AM

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