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October 07, 2010

Uh-Oh: Rumors Swirl That Meek Might Drop Out And Endorse Crist
Update: Rick Wilson Says Rumors Being Spread By Crist Dead-Enders

Update: This guy says it's the Crist camp putting this story out.

According to his profile he's a Republican strategist in Florida.

I have to tell you, usually when I put a name behind a quote, I'm suggesting the guy is credible. In this case, I have no idea. I haven't heard of him before.

Nathan Wurzel says Meek can't drop out, or else there would be a disaster for Democrats down-ticket, as many Democrats would stay home. Well... yeah but there is a hotly-contested gubernatorial race in which a D appears.

However, it's possible he's right anyway. If this appeared to blacks that the black guy was being thrown under the bus so that the white guy (or, umber guy, whatever he is) and the Latino guy could have a proper race, it could keep enough of them home to not only sink Crist, but sink, well, Sink, and a host of Congressional reps and state legislators and eff-all too.

Plus, really -- Crist isn't exactly lighting the state on fire, either. Why should Meek drop out? At least he won a primary.

Thanks to Slublog for that, who's kicking himself for forgetting his Pimp Hand Spitzer p-shop for the live-blog the other day.

...

Rumors... but I don't like 'em.

The math is that Meek can't win (couldn't he? If Crist dropped out?) so something will be arranged for Meek so he can get out.

Allah wonders, as I do, if the ballots are already printed and if there's any way to strip his name off them if he does drop out. Even if he did that, I don't think that many voters are that disconnected that they won't have heard Meek's out. Sure, some, but not a lot.

Average Polls... At RCP, Rubio has an average of about 42%, Crist 31%, Meek 19%.

Now, if you merely add B to C there you get 50%.

What we'd have to hope is that Crist would now be unmasked as simply a Democrat running falsely as an Independent and that a good chunk of his idiot "moderate" Republican supporters peel away from him. (He continues to evade the question of whether he'd caucus with Republicans or Democrats, insisting he will caucus "with the people." Right -- which people, slick?)

And we'd also have to hope that some number of Meek's supporters would, futilely, still vote for Meek, and that some of them would even jump to Rubio. Not a lot; but who knows, perhaps there are some Hispanics intent on voting Democrat but would jump to Rubio if the Democrat weren't in the race.

And, of course: The Big Red Wave.

That's a lot of hoping, but it would still be doable. But, no doubt: We'd re-start this race behind the Sienna Seditioner Crist.

Except... Except for the Quinnippiac poll putting Rubio at 46%. If that poll is accurate, then I think Rubio would actually be ahead, even in a two-party race.

Yeah, I know, 46% isn't 50%, either. But still. But Crist's voters can't be that enthusiastic over a bland mediocre careerist, and the dispirited Democrats can't be happy about a former Republican turned out-and-proud panderer.

46% will be 50% on election day.

But, of course, I don't know that Qunnippiac is right.


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posted by Ace at 08:42 PM

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