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October 05, 2010

Old and Busted: Wave Election Turns Out Dems
The New Hotness: Zombie Apocalypse Election Wipes Out Dems

Yesterday's generic ballot poll by Gallup has attracted some attention.

Here's Barone's column today.

However, Gallup also shows the results for two different turnout models. Under its "high turnout model" Republicans lead 53%-40%. Under its "low turnout model" Republicans lead 56%-38%.

These two numbers, if translated into popular votes in the 435 congressional districts, suggest huge gains for Republicans and a Republican House majority the likes of which we have not seen since the election cycles of 1946 or even 1928. ... The Gallup high turnout and low turnout numbers suggest it looks like 1894, when Republicans gained more than 100 seats
(125!) in a House of approximately 350 seats.

I've been beating the 1894 horse for a few months now but Barone's story was the first time I've seen it in the MSM. This google news link shows stories from Oct3-Oct5 that reference the 1894 elections. That found a few more stories like this interview with Barone on the Journal Editorial Report tv show.

... when I was growing up in Michigan, when you were growing up in Wisconsin, Paul, the political rule was that in times of economic distress, the industrial heartland--those states you just named, Pennsylvania, Ohio Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois--in times of economic distress, they moved toward the Democrats. What we're seeing now is that in a time of economic distress, they are moving heavily toward the Republicans in a way we haven't seen since '94, and I don't mean 1994. I mean 1894.


The white working class that a lot of Democrats like to think is the demographic base of their party, although it hasn't been for quite a few years, seems to be rejecting Barack Obama and his policies by really wide margins. I mean, you've got some surveys that are showing approval of Barack Obama among people that you might classify as white working class, in the neighborhood of 22%, 25%.

Nile Gardiner in the Telegraph smells what Barone is cooking.

America's Left faces meltdown in November

If Gallup's poll prove correct on November 2nd, which of course remains nearly a month away, the scale of the Republican victory will be absolutely huge. There is no doubt about it Gallup's latest survey is explosive, and points to history in the making for the latest conservative revolution to hit America.

Now I'm not predicting an 1894 style super tidal wave election. But I think it's signficant that the very idea of it is beginning to bubble into the public mind.

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