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October 04, 2010

Confirmed: Congressional Race Is Tightening; Democrats Rally To Smallest Generic Ballot Gap in Months

I would like to ignore this but I cannot, as it comes from Rasmussen, and there have been other polls suggesting this. Currently 45-42. That's winning -- even winning kinda big -- but that is not winning huge. Not even close.

Is that bad? Eh, there are still good polls for us, but I am now shifting to the idea this Democratic rally is for real. Real, but not enough (still losing), but enough to put the fear of Ewok into you.

Jim Geraghty's political guru "Obi Wan" actually said he expected this (before it happened) and was getting concerned that it wasn't happening. That is, I think, this sort of counter-movement is natural and inevitable and its existence confirms the general trend:

Obi-Wan: ...

I thought things were finally starting to make sense when I saw the bad news in the Boxer and Rand Paul polls, Boxer going up 8 and Rand Paul’s lead shrinking to 2.

Jim: That made sense to you?

Obi-Wan: I was waiting for the oscillation. Polling trajectories are like the Dow – nothing linear. We go up. We go down. The oscillations have to happen. So some downside, some voter pullback, some temporary buyer remorse makes you feel at home, you think you know what’s happening.

I mean, the Senate numbers aren’t supposed to keep breaking towards the GOP. We’re not even out of September. And Ohio, Pennsylvania and even Wisconsin look like they are gone for the Democrats? And Washington, West Virginia and Connecticut are already toss-ups? In a normal wave year, that could happen, but you wouldn’t see it for a while. Not till mid or late October.

So I was thinking all the trajectories are just advanced this year and so those polls were possible – it would make sense to see some of the general pullback that in an ordinary year would happen closer to the election.

But this is also a reminder that waves don't just happen; activists, citizens, and patriots make them happen. The wave isn't coming; we are the wave. Either we do this or we don't.

Which makes this a good time to mention the Call 40 people initiative the GOP has going on, which, seriously, I'll be doing. In fact, I'm trying to get together some blogger GOTV project going, walking the precincts, stuff like that. And I'm supposed to do radio, which I sort of hate.

But it's important. It really is. Consider being part of the wave, not just some flotsam borne upon it.

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posted by Ace at 04:04 PM

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