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September 27, 2010

Democrats Face Midwestern Armageddon?
Plus: Dick Morris Says Let's Go For An Even 100

It's bad everywhere else. It's worse there.

“There's little doubt that the Midwest is the Democrats' toughest region this year,” Democratic pollster Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling wrote on the firm’s website Friday, adding that the firm is also finding an enthusiasm gap of about 10 points down from what existed in 2008.

...

Top GOP pollster Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies wrote in even harsher terms last week: “The Midwest is going to be a killing field for Democrats this year from western [Pennsylvania] through to the Plains, Republicans are going to sweep a LOT of Democrats right out of office.”

Killing field? Ah yeah. Below, CAC's "Best Case Scenario/Democratic Mass Extinction" map for the midwest. Just in the midwest alone, we could pick up 30.


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What number would Dick Morris consider a smashing success? The Century Mark.

An analysis of the published polling data on eighty House races indicates that there are 54 districts now represented by Democrats in which Republicans are now ahead and another 19 where they are within five points and where the Democratic incumbent is under 50% of the vote. That's 73 likely wins. (The undecided vote always goes against the incumbent, so if a Congressman is significantly under 50%, even though he may have a lead, he is likely to lose).

Why aren't there more than 73? Because we haven't tried. Only about 160 of the Democrats' 239 Congressional Districts are even remotely considered to be in play. But that playbook is badly out of date. The Republican message has raced far ahead of the GOP campaign and put a lot of new seats in play. We just have to work these districts to win them.

In fact, there are no polls to analyze in most of these 160 districts. Nobody considered them in play enough to poll them. We just don't know how vulnerable these extra incumbents are. But, given the surprising vulnerability of the first eighty seats, we believe that a substantial number of these formerly invincible Congressmen can be ousted.


So we are launching a new effort: Project 100, in conjunction with ReaganPac, Michael Reagan's organization, to raise our sights and do independent expenditures in an additional twenty or so districts to give the Republicans in these newly marginal seats a big boost. We hope to raise $2 million so as to be able to put $100,000, on average, into each of these districts

Here's the link for Project 100. Correction: that wasn't the link; I can't find a link for this.

I know a lot of people will say "bring the expectations down closer to likely reality." I have to be a Purist on this point and insist, "no, let's bring the likely reality up closer to the expectations."


My Own Somethin'-Somethin': I am trying to get a minor side-project off the ground to help out here... I hope to get someone interested by the end of the week.

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posted by Ace at 06:42 PM

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