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September 21, 2010

PPP: West Virginia Senate Race: GOP Candidate Raese Leads By 3

Ace teased this yesterday and now the numbers are out.

46-43 with GOP candidate John Raese leading Governor Joe Manchin within the margin of error. (I corrected this part thanks to a heads ups from CAC in the comments)

The thing that is making this so close is that voters don't really want to see Democrats control Congress but they really like Manchin.

Manchin is the second most popular Governor PPP has polled on all year, behind only Bobby Jindal, with a 59/32 approval spread. He breaks almost even with Republicans as 42% of them approve of the job he's doing with just 44% disapproving. In a highly polarized political climate the list of politicians with that kind of crossover popularity is very short.

At the same time West Virginians couldn't be much more down on national Democrats. Barack Obama's approval rating in the state is just 30% with 64% of voters disapproving of him. Even within his own party barely half of voters, at 51%, like the job he's doing. Support from Republicans (91% disapproval) and independents (73% disapproval) is pretty much nonexistent.

Given the President's high degree of unpopularity it's no surprise that 54% of voters in the state want Republicans to control the next Congress with just 37% wanting the Democrats to stay in charge. GOP voters (91-3) and independents (66-21) are pretty universal in their desire for a Republican majority and even 25% of Democrats say they'd like to see a change.

The GOP candidate, John Raese is a self-funder and he's been spending quite a bit to get the race to this point, there's no reason he won't keep it up. Given the wave that's coming it's very possible that the Exalted Grand Cyclopes is going to replaced by a Republican.

Oh and just a reminder...this is a special election as well, so the winner gets to sit in the lame duck.


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posted by DrewM. at 11:32 AM

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