Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Moron Meet-Ups
MI/Midwest Meet-up:

It has a website!

SoCal Meet-up: 8/25/2018 In Irvine CA
Contact Jim

NY/NJ MoMe: 8/23/2018, 6pm-9pm in Hoboken
Contact CBD

Central NJ MoMe: 10/13/2018: Hillsborough-Somerset County
Contact fenelonspoke

SW Ohio MoMe: 10/20/2018, 7-10pm in Dayton OH
Contact ibguy

Texas MoMe: 10/20/18
Contact Ben Had
PPP: West Virginia Senate Race: GOP Candidate Raese Leads By 3 | Main | Ace: The New PPP Doomsday Poll Showing Johnson Ahead Of Feingold By Double Digits Makes Me Want To Make Something For Sean Duffy
Sean Duffy: Please Leave Me In Peace
Ace: No I Swear This Time I Won't Be Weird At All
September 21, 2010

Polls and Momentum

In politics and sports, commentators like nothing more than to talk about momentum. Who has it. Who lost it. And how much it's going to affect the only poll that really matters on Election Day. So I always take note how momentum gets framed.

Take the West Virginia PPP poll just released.

PPP cautions that because this is their first poll in the West Virginia race and the first of any poll to show Raese over Manchin it shouldn't be interpreted to say anything about momentum.

Bullhockey. The Robert Byrd Memorial Senate Seat was widely thought to be a long shot for a GOP pick up. All the analysts categorize the seat "Leans Dem." So a poll showing the the Republican candidate over the de facto Democratic incumbent absolutely demonstrates that the electorate is going places. PPP's cautionary statement just shows that the electorate is going places PPP isn't exactly comfortable with.

We've been watching Gallup's notoriously unreliable polling on the generic ballot for the same reason. One week they've got the Republican at +10. The next week, it's tied. Then the generic Republican +5. Now, again, it's statistically tied. So, how does Gallup spin this: "Republicans losing strength in September compared with August." The point being that Republicans are losing momentum. Oh, the horror, they peaked too soon.

Again, BULLHOCKEY. A series of unreliable polls does not indicate momentum or lack thereof. In fact, this series of polls doesn't indicate anything at all except that Gallup has waited too long compared to its competitors to start polling likely voters. Gallup's poll is based on surveys of registered voters, which in a mid-term election year are only slightly more accurate than surveys of the squirrels in my yard.

Gallup cautions that things may change when it finally starts polling likely voters in October. No. Shit. Republicans are much more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting this year. Ya think that might affect the outcome? Oh, but that's not Gallup's goal right now. Right now it wants to talk about momentum. And that means pretending that the Democrats have got it.

digg this
posted by Gabriel Malor at 11:51 AM

| Access Comments

Recent Comments
Bruce: "Next will be announcements and scoreboards in Span ..."

Ripley: "Was any of the NFL's dwindling fan base asking for ..."

Kevin Spacey: ""After the death of variety show on TV, other then ..."

24 hour pharmacy: "hello!,I like your writing very so much! percentag ..."

TheQuietMan: "Is it about the NFL's male cheerleaders ? Posted ..."

Roger Good-El: "[i] since Michael Sam was a bust. Posted by: Lizz ..."

Bruce: "I'm putting my money on pedos as the next oh-so-po ..."

Bruce: "Somebody forget to tell her no one cares about how ..."

Lt. Col. Kilgore: "[i]What better smell is there in the morning than ..."

Lizzy[/i]: ">>Simpler explanation is what it always is. Just a ..."

rickl: "[i]183 Now I just use the pan, lined with alumin ..."

Vlad the Impaler, whittling away like mad: ""What's the deal with the male cheerleaders? Is th ..."

Recent Entries

Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64