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August 03, 2010

Charlie Cook: Hey, Remember Last Week When I Told You Democrats There Were Hopeful Signs In the Polling...? Yeah, I Changed My Mind Again; You're Gonna Get Crushed

Cook had recently written of recent better Democratic numbers (better as in "not as bad") that they stood a fair chance of losing only a few seats here and there.

But that was substantially based on those two weeks of goofy Gallup numbers showing the Dems gaining big-time on Republicans.

Well, that two week burp is past.

My view for over a year has been that a very bad political environment for Democrats was developing, and I have been convinced for some time that we might well see a wave reminiscent of those of 1994 and 2006, frequently pointing to data that corroborated that view.

Thus, when there were back-to-back weeks of the respected Gallup Poll pointing toward Democrats by margins a bit wider than the normal statistical flutter, it seemed fair to point to it in my National Journal magazine column.

I did so with a healthy level of caution, even skepticism....

Subsequent polling suggests that nothing has happened.


The environment still looks exceedingly bad for Democrats and last week's disappointing Commerce Department report that showed the gross domestic product grew 2.4 percent for the second quarter points to an economy so anemic as to make any meaningful improvement in unemployment extremely unlikely between now and Election Day.


The Cook Political Report last week upped its projection from a 30-40-seat net gain for Republicans to a 32-42-seat net gain, with our model showing +34 seats for the GOP. This count is more heavily weighted toward individual race dynamics, but my gut feeling -- which, in years like this one, factors in national mood, relative intensity and enthusiasm between the parties and how independents seem to be breaking -- is suggesting somewhat bigger numbers.

The wave is still the wave, and it still looks pretty strong and unabated.

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posted by Ace at 03:33 PM

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