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May 21, 2010

Political Timewaster: Falling Obama

Sorry for another nothing post, but this is cute. Help guide Obama down, down, down into ever-sinking popularity.

Although maybe he doesn't need your help:

A private research group’s gauge of future U.S.economic activity unexpectedly slipped in April, the first decline in more than a year and a sign that growth could slow this summer, weighing on hiring.

The Conference Board said Thursday its index of leading economic indicators edged down 0.1 percent last month, the first drop since March 2009. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters had expected a gain of 0.2 percent. …

“Slower growth is likely in store for the second half of the year as the boost from inventories fades away,” said Tim Quinlan, economist at Wells Fargo Securities, in a research note.

Goldman Sachs economists expect growth to slow to an annualized rate of 1.5 percent in the second half of the year from more than 3 percent in the first six months of 2010.

See the link for Ed's noting that the MFM is embargoing this story (only the conservative Washington Times reported it) and how bad it is -- a 1.5% growth rate isn't really growth, as the workforce population expands at that rate, or just shy of it. This would not be deemed any sort of genuine recovery -- a real recovery includes explosive growth for several years as an economy ramps up towards its previous capacity (the "V" shaped recovery Larry Kudlow still predicts).

This would be the dreaded "L" non-recovery -- the economy falls down and then flatlines afterwards. This represents not a downturn so much as a permanentloss of economic vitality that never actually comes back. (At least in the short- to mid-term timeframe.)

A commentator suggested, cleverly I think, that Obama turned his attention away from the One Big Job he had to do -- fix the economy -- because he couldn't, and so pretended that his real One Big Job was something he could do -- sign a destructive health care bill into law. He'd get his "win" that way, the thinking went.

But that was a fatal error. The economy may still recover -- it has been almost unkillable since Reagan -- and that will save Obama.

But if it doesn't, that Halo of Unaccountability Obama wears on his head is going to rust and crumble into dust.


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posted by Ace at 04:04 PM

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