Sponsored Content









































« Overnight Open Thread | Main | Ummm, hey look, a squirrel! »
March 28, 2010

CMI's explanation of "survivor bias".
How bad retail numbers get spun as positives

The whole CMI site and charts are an interesting, albeit frightening, read. The bit on numbers cooking of retail figures is quite revealing.

And by March 6th the Retail Index (chart on the right below) had returned to levels indicative of a greater than 6% year-over-year decrease in consumer demand. This number is substantially different from the self reported sales figures from the retail industry, which suffer from 'survivor bias' as a consequence of focusing on 'same store sales in stores open at least a year'. The closing of select stores or entire chains are simply unreported, while the traffic shifted to remaining stores generates a positive spin. Our substantially more negative numbers, however, have been matching sales tax collections, which have no survivor bias. We believe our internet based sample is a fair representation of the entire 'demand' side of the economy, and the sales tax numbers seem to confirm that conclusion...
Sales tax figures are indeed a far more reliable proxy for genuine retail activity than self reported same-store figures.

If CMI's charts are even only somewhat accurate, the "double dip" is already here and will be reflected in undeniable ways over the next couple of months. Prepare to embrace the suck. The Federal Reserve and government quiver of economic weapons is empty, tapped out, sucking wind, pining for the fjords.

Probably the only thing keeping this contraction in retail spending from being more dramatic is the increase in the price of gasoline (we're nearing $1 increase during the past year)






Recent Comments
IrishEi: ">>> because he had people like John Solomon and Sa ..."

micky: "Jan Hook as Tammye Faye was hilarious in a torrent ..."

BignJames: " The stuff is dangerous. Deadly even. Posted by ..."

Daddy, why do muffin pans have 12 spaces instead of five?: "Tango hahahaha ..."

Rick67: "I will cut Macron slack for this. Partly because p ..."

IrishEi: " Just made some Tang...don't think I've had any si ..."

Sasquatch, the Original Trans-Wookie: "265 Speaking of, I don't know her name but the lad ..."

humphreyrobot : "Remember the Jesus lady on TV, she cried on live t ..."

BignJames: "They just wanted to be able to visit their loved o ..."

sven: "263 Posted by: Nightwatch at March 27, 2023 09:52 ..."

Nightwatch: "Anyone... LADYL's son. Status? ..."

Daddy, why do muffin pans have 12 spaces instead of five?: "This all started with the fight for GEY Marriage a ..."

Recent Entries
Search


Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64