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January 18, 2010

Did You Hear? Brown Might Win This Thing

Had a lost weekend and am not really up on all of the specific polls, except the best poll for Coakley says it's a tie, Coakley's own polls say she's behind, and most polls are now somewhere in the 5-10 range for Brown.

I don't mean to pat myself on the back too hard but I did say (albeit in the comments) "This is going to happen. Wrap your minds around that."

I could just feel the momentum and the preference cascade working.

I am still hoping for a win, hard, partly because if Brown loses, I'll feel bad for encouraging hope.

I don't really want to get too cocky but it has been my (secret) prediction the race would end up 10-12 points for Brown.

But Rothernberg, for example, now says lean Brown. Days ago they changed it from Lean Coakley to Tossup, and now to lean Brown.

Rothenberg joins Cookin so designating the race.

And polls of specific counties and towns -- bellwethers -- show the race breaking for Brown.

Breaking hard for Brown, as Ben Smith says, with a Drudge-esque kick.

The bellwether polling, conducted Saturday, Jan. 16, and Sunday, Jan. 17, shows:

• Brown (55 percent) leads Coakley (40 percent) by 15 points in Gardner. Independent candidate Joseph L. Kennedy polls 2 percent, while 3 percent are undecided.

• In Fitchburg, Brown (55 percent) has a 14-point lead over Coakley (41 percent), with 2 percent for Kennedy and 2 percent undecided.

• Peabody voters give Brown (57 percent), a 17-point lead over Coakley (40 percent), with Kennedy polling 1 percent and 3 percent undecided.

And of course the White House is now predicting a Brown win.

Thanks to AHFF Geoff.

Sorry about this lame post, I often need "ice-breaker" posts to get me going.

Republican Tracking Poll: Brown Gained Support Over Weekend. "Can it happen? yes it can."

Awesome Video of Coakley Phone Bank. Actually, I can't see the video, but from the description, it sounds good. Let me know what I'm missing.

Thanks to Andrew for that, via Watchdog.

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posted by Ace at 02:03 PM

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