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November 03, 2009

NJ Update: CNN Exits Show Big Lead for Christie Among Independents

Looking Up: Blowout lead among indies:

This seems pretty darn big: In New Jersey, CNN's exit poll says Christie won independents 58-33 over Corzine, with indies making up 27 percent of the electorate.

NJ Results: Very little of the vote in yet.


Big Update of Dubious Provenance : Geraghty is not vouching for this number at all but he's re-tweeting a claim: Corzine and Christie knotted up at 47 apiece, according, supposedly, to leaked exit polls.

...

Turnout Poor In Newark, Other Democratic Strongholds: Corzine needs minorities to turn out enough to make up 20% of voters. It appears unlikely. Although turnout has ticked up in Newark, no one is talking about strong turnout. Even Democratic hands will only predict, wink-wink, a "narrow win."

More on NJ Turnout from Mary Katharine Ham.


...

Pretty damn good news:

In NY-23 despite the presence more or less of two Republican candidates on the ballot, Doug Hoffman is winning 71% of the GOP vote to Bill Owens’ 67% of the Democratic vote. Hoffman leads Owens 52-30 with independents.

In New Jersey Chris Christie is getting 82% of the Republican vote while Jon Corzine is at 72% of the Democratic vote. Christie leads 52-29 with independents. …

From the high levels of party unity it’s clear that Republicans voters see the path back to power will require staying on the same page. And whether it’s because the Democrats have bad candidates or they’re unhappy with President Obama, independents are giving the GOP very high levels of support. It should be the best Republican election night since George W. Bush got reelected.

Christie, though, is not in a good position. He may be getting more of the Republican vote than Corzine is getting of the Democratic vote, but the fact is New Jersey has a lot more Democrats than Republicans. Hopefully doing well with independents will provide votes to put him over the top, but it's going to be near thing: We probably won't know until late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

Whoops! Maybe not (fingers crossed knock wood spit). Turnout in McCain counties in NJ heavy.

I want to preface this by noting that all of this is based only on the early voting, and is based on about a half-dozen polling places in every county in New Jersey; some known as historically Republican districts, some known as historically swing districts, and some known as historically Democratic districts.

A trusted source tells me that as of noon, total turnout in the GOP the swing districts in NJ is significantly outpacing turnout in Democrat districts. The turnout ratio is not quite two to one, but it's not that far from it.

Caveats Geraghty adds: Democrats vote later, etc.

Also, small sample size here.

Still.

Thanks to AHFF Geoff.






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