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August 19, 2009

Another Day, Another Low for Obama Support

Again, a statistically insignificant blip from yesterday of a mere point, which, for all I know, may be due merely to a good Obama day falling off the three day track, or a particularly bad Obama day entering it.

1% is no big shakes. But it is a whole new low of support, at 51%. And once again, the blip is trivial, but the trend is persistent, obvious, and significant.

FYI, Obama's support at Rasmussen creeps up from 49% to 51%. Of likely voters.

I doubt that. Rasmussen will have him at 48% by Monday.

You can group everyone in America into strata depending on overall political ideology and specific political triggers. These groups will "flip" together based upon specific triggers. First come your harder-core conservatives (who never flipped because they weren't on board to begin with), then the squishier varieties who "wanted to give Obama a chance," then the RINOs like Noonan, then the conservative-leaning independents, etc.

AHFF Geoff, who tipped this, sighed as he said "I sense a bottoming." Well, I'm not so sure of that -- I think Obama has a couple of more points to lose, at least.

But it could be we're getting fewer and fewer flips from approve to disapprove based on the triggers -- the circumstances, the gaffes, the unemployment figures, etc. -- we have now.

But I don't see that as a problem. There will be new triggers. Sure, some might flip people back into Obama's camp, but I think most of what's coming will flip more and more strata of voters into the opposition.

The only thing you can confidently predict about the future in politics is that the future will almost certainly be different than the present. Maybe it'll be better for Obama. But I don't think that's the way to bet.

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posted by Ace at 01:33 PM

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