Pew Confirms Obama's Poll Numbers Fading

Fading, but not really falling precipitously, dropping from 64% in February to 59% now. With disapproval rising from 17% to 26%.

Incidentally, lefty poll analyst Nate Silver claims that this is all perfectly predictable... which to some extent it is. Of course Obama was going to lose Republican support. And maybe some independent support too.

But if this was so perfectly predictable, why did Nate Silver predict the opposite, that Obama's poll numbers would vault to 70%?

It is true that some of this was to be expected. And if Obama can keep his numbers at 55% or better, he'll be fine. But I don't believe that's the bottom. And for all the claims of the pubic that they're willing to give Obama a year or more to fix the financial mess, they won't. They may sincerely believe they'll suffer through a year or two of deep recession or depression without expecting the president to perform, but they won't.

Six months. Tops.

That doesn't mean his number falls to the lows George Bush saw. But a president who drops to around 50% approval is a president in trouble.

posted by Ace at 04:04 PM

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