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February 27, 2009

Obama's Rosy Assumptions

Greg Mankiw looks at the economic forecasts in the Obama budget and finds them a bit...optimistic when compared to consensus forecasts. He links a story that wonders whether "Rosy Scenario" is back.

Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, a major private forecasting firm, called the administration's forecasts "way too optimistic" and said it could represent a return to the overly optimistic forecasts of previous administrations confronted by surging budget deficits.

"They used to joke during the Reagan years that the highest ranking woman in the administration was Rosy Scenario," he said. "We may be seeing a return of Rosy Scenario."

Obama's assumptions are particularly rosy, considering his plans to burden the economy with a crushing tax plan.

The 'rich' are going to get especially soaked. Basically, Obama is making the very dangerous assumption that increasing taxes don't affect taxpayer behavior.

Needless to say, he's wrong. And we all get to see just how wrong in a few years. Won't that be fun?

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posted by Slublog at 10:19 AM

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