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| Steele Wins! Race for the RNC Chair » January 30, 2009
GDP Contracts 3.8% Fourth Quarter; Largest Drop Since Deep Receession of 1982There are two bright spots. 1982's contraction wasn't merely sharper, it was greatly sharper. And analysts had predicted a 5.4% contraction. The economy shrank at its fastest pace in nearly 27 years in the fourth quarter, government data showed, sinking deeper into recession as consumers and business cut spending. There are other optimistic signs. As already noted, the credit crisis is either passed or at least substantially abated: But back to the market problem overall: Investors continue to ignore one of the very brightest spots in the firmament: Namely, the credit freeze is thawing, according to all manner of key interest rates and spreads. In fact, LIBOR is around 1 percent now, back to where it was in the early summer of 2007 before the crunch started. This means that much of the uncertainty about lending, borrowing, investing, and hiring is receding from the market. This is a very positive sign. While retail sales and jobs are lagging indicators, the credit-market improvement is a leading indicator — pointing to recovery in the economy sometime this spring or summer. The Fed, too, thinks a recovery is possible later this year: The Fed was very gloomy in its Open Market Committee statement today. It suggested a gradual recovery could begin later this year, although there are plenty of downside risks. The Fed will keep its target rate near zero, and will keep expanding its balance sheet by purchasing plenty of government-sponsored debt and mortgage-backed securities. Its so-called TALF plan to finance consumer-related bonds will begin soon. It might even buy Treasuries, even though it can’t quite make its mind up on that. Taken together, these actions will keep injecting more cash into the financial system. That's Larry Kudlow, who is an indefatigable optimist, but that doesn't mean he's wrong. More often than not he's right. And the Fed itself agrees that a late-2009 recovery is quite possible. So why are we possibly slitting our economic necks with this "stimulus"? Do the Gods of Money Multipliers demand a blood sacrifice? | Recent Comments
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