NBER Officially Declares Recession, Dating From... December 2007?

Apparently once we're in a recession, they check for the last peak of employment to date its beginning. Seems a bit silly to me -- recessions therefore begin immediately after the last economic high, even though for months afterwards the economic numbers can still be quite good -- but that's how they do it.

So, we've now been in a recession for 11 months. The media is officially repudiated, which has reported us being in a recession for, oh, about eight years exactly.

Question: Runninrebel asks, "So basically we're always in a recession unless we're at a peak? But we don't know it for months after the fact?"

No. First we have to hit the recession threshold (famously defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, although that's not a hard and fast rule; one quarter of .1% growth, followed by a quarter of deeper contraction, would presumably suffice.

Once a recession is "declared," then they search back for the last peak before it to date it.

Without the declaration of the recession, there is no searching back for its beginning.

posted by Ace at 02:56 PM

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