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October 22, 2008

AP: OBAMA 44, McCAIN 43

Dead even:


The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.

The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before Election Day.

More Movement... in Florida. Mason-Dixon had McCain down, now they have him up by two.

It has to be kept in mind, as we talk about flipping red states blue, that Obama needs to flip red states blue. McCain doesn't have the same requirement -- he could lose a red state or two and still win.

I point this out to Seattle Slough who will crow, "But you're just holding states you already had!"

Indeed. But the Red states counted for 286 electoral votes last time, didn't they?

I concede Iowa is a lost cause. Everywhere else... not so much, not so much.

Thanks to CJ.






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